Zambia votes in general election with incumbent Hichilema favored despite cost-of-living frustrations

Economic record at stake

Zambia's 22 million people will vote on Thursday in simultaneous presidential, parliamentary and local government elections, with President Hakainde Hichilema seeking a second five-year term against 13 other candidates. The 64-year-old businessman, who won office on his sixth attempt in 2021, is running on a macroeconomic turnaround that includes a debt restructuring after the country's 2020 sovereign default, a restored International Monetary Fund programme, and projected growth of 5% this year. Inflation has fallen to 6.5% in June according to official data, or 6.8% in April per other reports, and the kwacha currency has strengthened.

Yet the benefits remain elusive for many. More than 70% of the population lives on less than three dollars a day, according to World Bank data, and the unemployment rate hovers around 10%. Many households survive on salaries between $60 and $100 a month while grocery prices keep rising. The government's removal of electricity and fuel subsidies has raised household expenses, and a drought in 2024 that was the worst in decades crippled agriculture and forced severe hydro-power load-shedding before the economy rebounded in 2026 on record maize harvests.

A fragmented opposition

Hichilema's principal challenger is Brian Mundubile, a 55-year-old accountant, lawyer and former minister in the Patriotic Front government that ruled from 2011 to 2021. Mundubile leads the Tonse Alliance of opposition parties and is running under the newly formed NRPUP, which draws much of its base from the former ruling party. He entered the race only in May, leaving little time to build name recognition among an electorate that also chooses its parliament.

The opposition has been weakened by divisions. Analyst Euston Chiputa noted that one serious weakness is that the opposition camp is splintered, with parliamentary and local government candidates from Mundubile's party and those from his running mate's party competing against each other in some places. Lee Habasonda, a political science lecturer at the University of Zambia, said the opposition retains support in Lusaka and Copperbelt Province, which have large numbers of registered voters, but added that if the opposition had rallied behind one candidate earlier, the contest would have been different.

Mundubile told AFP on Wednesday that the government had tightened restrictions on his campaign through police interference, violence from ruling party supporters, and cancelled flight authorisations that prevented him from holding rallies in the provinces.

An election is a process, not an event. And the process we have just gone through can only lead to one, and only one conclusion: the election will be neither free, nor fair.

The shadow of Edgar Lungu

The feud between Hichilema and his predecessor Edgar Lungu, who died in South Africa in June 2025, continues to cast a shadow over the vote. Zambia's government went to court to stop Lungu's family from burying him, and in June 2026 South Africa's supreme court of appeal ruled in favour of the family, overturning a previous high court decision in favour of the government. Mundubile's running mate Makebi Zulu acted as the Lungu family spokesperson during the burial dispute, and the campaign trail has included promises to bring Lungu's body back to Zambia for a dignified burial.

Christopher Vandome, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, said the way death is dealt with matters deeply in Zambian society.

Even Hichilema supporters want to see due respect given to those that have died. When it appears things get messy, it just makes the incumbent look disrespectful.

Fairness concerns and electoral mechanics

The Tonse Alliance has accused Hichilema of deploying authoritarian tactics, including raiding its offices and detaining 36 members of Mundubile's team. Hichilema's team rejected the claims, noting that in 2021 the opposition leader had been arrested 15 times, media outlets had been shut down, and the internet was switched off on election day. Transparency International Zambia monitors have recorded incidents of police interrupting opposition rallies. Freedom House rates Zambia as "partly free," saying opposition parties face onerous legal and practical obstacles to fair competition.

The Electoral Commission announced in April that 70 new constituencies would be added, raising parliamentary seats from 156 to 226. Up to 8.7 million voters are expected to take part, a majority of whom are women. A presidential candidate must secure more than 50% of votes cast to win in the first round, or face a run-off between the top two contenders.