Democrats' midterm win raises hopes in Kyiv but Putin may escalate before Trump's term ends

Ukraine hopes for more support

Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the German broadcaster ZDF that Ukraine expects greater US backing after the Democrats' gains, according to AFP. He argued that stronger financial or military assistance from Congress could affect Putin's decisions and open the way to negotiations. The new Congress begins its session on 3 January 2027, and Democrats are expected to be more critical of Trump's Ukraine policy.

“There is hope now, given this balance of forces, and we will benefit from greater support.”

According to the reporting, Democratic leaders had strongly criticized Trump's decision to suspend sanctions on Russia and halt American military and financial aid to Kyiv. Democrats could advance bills on aid to Ukraine or tougher sanctions, but Trump keeps his veto, and overriding it would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which analysts say Democrats would struggle to reach. Control of Congress would also let Democrats examine White House policy on Ukraine and could open investigations into Elon Musk, owner of SpaceX, over restrictions on Starlink in Ukraine.

Doubts in Kyiv and Moscow

Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee of the Ukrainian parliament, said the situation would not change radically because foreign policy remains in the president's hands.

“I do not think the situation will change radically, because foreign policy will remain in the hands of the president.”

A Russian presidential spokesperson said Moscow hopes Trump will continue his efforts to end the war. Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that Putin no longer believes Trump can force Ukraine to accept a peace deal on Russia's terms and is preparing for a longer war. Bloomberg also considered it unlikely that the Republican defeat would lead the administration to step up support for Kyiv.

Pressure on energy infrastructure

Bloomberg's sources said Trump's room to push Zelensky toward an agreement could shrink, which could allow Putin to intensify attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Peace talks involving Ukrainian, US and Russian representatives are scheduled for 10 and 11 November in Abu Dhabi. A possible meeting between Putin and Trump in China at the APEC summit this month was also mentioned, though Moscow reportedly does not expect significant progress from it.

Regional and European views

Iran said the result reflected public discontent with the war, while officials there did not expect a change in Washington's policy. Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that "the reason we lost is the war." Presidential adviser Valentin Naumescu said on Facebook that Putin could accelerate and possibly escalate his aggression before the current administration leaves office, and that Europe must keep supporting Ukraine through the coming winter. He said the EU, the United Kingdom, Canada and Norway would continue military, logistical and financial aid to Kyiv and pressure on Russia through sanctions.