Kushner to consult Europe before US, Ukraine and Russia talks in Abu Dhabi

Consultations ahead of Abu Dhabi

Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump, announced on X that before two days of talks between the United States, Ukraine and Russia he would meet partners from Ukraine, the European Union, NATO, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy. Steve Witkoff, the second US envoy, will take part alongside him. The purpose of these meetings is to coordinate positions on European security and the postwar future of Ukraine. Kushner also said Washington is working with the EU and European states on Ukraine's public finances and reconstruction, including critical infrastructure, private investment and conditions for economic growth.

Existing institutions as the starting point

Kushner had already said that the Abu Dhabi meeting would address the future security architecture in Europe. On 9 November he argued that the starting point should be cooperation mechanisms and international agreements that already exist. According to him, the discussions should cover stronger consultations, faster crisis communication, greater military transparency and measures that reduce the risk of escalation. He also gave assurances that each state's sovereignty and independence in decision-making would be respected.

Concern on NATO's eastern flank

A Ukrainian official involved in the negotiations told PAP that states on NATO's eastern flank look at the new Washington approach with concern. Their main fear is a possible withdrawal of allied troops from their territory, although the official considered that scenario unlikely. The official also pointed to the absence of a single, coherent European representation at the international talks.

Moscow's demands and the Trump-Putin track

Trump has spoken of the possibility of a large agreement with Russia, and US officials are preparing another round of negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine. Nothing so far confirms that Washington and Moscow have agreed the terms of a comprehensive deal. In the week of 2 November Trump met Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev at the White House, while Kushner held talks in Brussels with representatives of Ukraine, NATO and European states. Russia's demands from December 2021 to limit NATO activity in Central and Eastern Europe carry particular weight, but it is unknown whether similar demands are part of the current talks or what position the US administration takes on them.

Personnel changes in Washington

Susie Wiles left her post in the White House and was replaced by Stephen Miller, one of the most radical figures in the administration. Agnieszka Lichnerowicz and Mateusz Mazzini read the move as a sign of a planned return to culture-war strategy and a likely continuation of a harsh anti-immigration policy. The change came less than a week after Democrats took control of Congress following the midterm elections. Miller's promotion may also serve to divert attention from the war in Iran and could be a lifeline for Vice President J.D. Vance, who is in a difficult political position.

Calendar and stakes for Poland

The G7 foreign ministers begin their meeting in Paris on 9 November, and the UN Security Council debates the situation in Ukraine the same day. The Abu Dhabi talks are scheduled for 10-11 November, as the timeline below shows.

Rzeczpospolita warned that Poland could pay the price of a deal in which the strong settle the rules of Europe's order over the heads of the weak. Pb.pl noted that the economic side of any agreement matters as much as the political one. Future defence spending, financing costs for states, sanctions policy, the reconstruction of Ukraine and the perceived investment risk in Central and Eastern Europe all depend on its terms.