US, Russia and Ukraine to hold talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November

Who sits at the table

The trilateral talks are scheduled for 10 and 11 November in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, under US mediation. According to Al Jazeera, the American delegation will be led by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, in what would be the first talks of this kind in nine months. Ukraine's team will be headed by Rustem Umerov, Kyiv's chief negotiator who also leads the external intelligence service, according to the Kyiv Independent. David Arakhamia, head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's parliamentary group, and the head of the presidential office are also expected to take part. Russia and Ukraine are both expected to send negotiating teams to meet the American delegation.

What Washington expects

A US official briefing reporters ahead of the talks said Russia and Ukraine both show some flexibility on a possible land swap in private contacts. Kyiv wants Russia to withdraw to the borders that existed before the war, while Vladimir Putin wants the whole Donetsk region under Russian control. Russia holds around 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of eastern Donbas, a annexation that the international community does not recognise. The official said a territorial agreement would most likely come at the end of the negotiations, after other issues such as post-war security architecture are settled. Security guarantees for Ukraine, modelled on the protection NATO provides under its Article 5, are expected to be a central topic. The official expressed restrained optimism that progress is possible, while warning that the talks will take time.

Doubts in Oslo and Brussels

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told POLITICO he would be cautious about what the new round can deliver, and he questioned the optimism of Donald Trump that a deal is close. Støre said Abu Dhabi should be a first step, with one of its outcomes being the setting of a new meeting at very short notice. He listed possible agenda items, including a Black Sea ceasefire to secure grain shipments, a halt to strikes on energy infrastructure, a freeze of the front line and prisoner exchanges. European governments are not formal participants in the trilateral format, but France has announced that European delegations will travel to Abu Dhabi. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU will be present alongside its partners, and spokesperson Paola Pinho said Brussels wants a single position and that talks on European security must follow the end of the war. The peace effort, along with Ukraine's support and its funding, is due to be discussed at an informal European Council in Dublin on 13 November.

Trump's view

In an interview with CBS's 60 Minutes, released on 9 November, Trump said he believed an agreement with Russia was achievable and that Ukraine would end up with a somewhat different shape. He did not explain what he meant or which territorial changes he considers possible. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking before a trip to Paris for talks with G7 foreign ministers, said he had seen progress on post-war security arrangements for Ukraine and Europe. Rubio suggested that further developments could follow the talks held this week. The US has also signed a deal to buy Russian diesel, which critics say could give Moscow extra revenue to continue the war.

What happens next

Von der Leyen begins a visit to Romania and Bulgaria on 9 November, where she plans to stress that the threats to Black Sea security are escalating and that freedom of navigation there must be restored. She has also backed Zelensky's call for a ceasefire covering food and energy infrastructure. The Abu Dhabi round closes on 11 November, and the US envoys may travel to Russia afterwards to meet Putin.