US envoys meet Putin in Moscow as Abu Dhabi talks yield prisoner swap

Abu Dhabi talks end with a prisoner swap

The trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States closed in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday, 11 November, after two days of discussions. According to Kushner, they were the first trilateral round since February, and AGI reports they followed nine months without diplomatic contact between Moscow and Kyiv. The only concrete outcome was an agreement on a prisoner exchange that Il Sole 24 ORE says would return more than 1,000 people to each side, and that AGI describes as the largest since the start of the war. The details are to be finalised on Thursday, 12 November. Kushner called the talks serious, detailed and frank but also quite difficult, and acknowledged that significant differences remain. Russia's chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, said the sides reached mutual understanding on some points but not others, and that the conversation will continue.

Territory remains the deepest gap

Russia's declared aim is the full Donbass, according to The Economist. Medinsky said Moscow will end the war only once it has reached all the goals set at the start of its 'special operation'. The Economist reports that the US envoys floated redrawing the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk as part of a deal between Kyiv and Moscow, an idea it says Ukraine would not accept. Russia controls Luhansk but is still far from dominating Donetsk, and the front has largely stalled as drones drive most of the fighting. Zelensky said Russia misjudges the situation and that Putin lives in another reality. Kaja Kallas said in Brussels that Russia has no real willingness to negotiate.

Security guarantees and NATO

According to Axios, as relayed by Il Giornale, Washington is open to rethinking NATO's role and its eastward enlargement, a limit on the alliance that Russia has sought in the past. The Wall Street Journal, cited by Adnkronos, reported that the United States has asked Moscow to present a security arrangement with Europe. The same sources say Washington assured that no agreement will be reached without the consent of Kyiv and European partners, and that Moscow will not have a veto over Europe's security choices. Axios sources also said Russian negotiators argued that Putin chose to invade because Joe Biden did not answer his 2021 letter on security concerns. US envoys want Moscow to specify which 'symmetrical steps' it is prepared to take toward de-escalation. Kushner told Politico that the envoys will ask Putin to bless widening the negotiating table to European countries.

Moscow, Dublin and strikes on Kyiv

Witkoff and Kushner landed at Moscow airport, where Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's special representative, greeted them, according to TASS. They are due to meet Putin on Thursday morning, and Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov confirmed the meeting would proceed as usual. After Moscow, the envoys are due to fly to Dublin on Thursday evening to meet Zelensky, who is on an official visit there and attending the sidelines of an EU leaders' summit. In Dublin, Zelensky said Europe must take part directly in the process, calling an end to the war without Europe unjust and, frankly, impossible, while stressing that much depends on Russia but even more on the United States. He sees a window to reach a result by 2027, while David Arakhamia, head of Zelensky's parliamentary faction, said progress in Abu Dhabi could lead to a deal by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Russia fired a series of ballistic missiles at Kyiv overnight, and the toll from the attack was not yet known.