Ukraine seeks Moldova rail route for grain as Russian strikes hit Odesa land corridor

Russian strikes target land corridor

Russian forces struck the Maiaki bridge on the M-15 Odesa-Reni highway on 9 August, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The bridge spans the Dniester estuary and serves as a critical infrastructure point on a route connecting southern Ukraine to Moldova and Romania, linking to Romanian Danube ports such as Galați and Brăila, as well as to the port of Constanța. ISW assesses that Russian forces are likely shifting their tactical priorities from the maritime corridor to the land corridor, specifically to disrupt Ukrainian agricultural exports and affect the broader economy. Russia has conducted a systematic campaign against Ukraine's agricultural and logistics infrastructure since withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, previously focusing attacks on seaports including Odesa and the river ports of Reni and Ismail near the Romanian border.

Ukraine-Moldova rail negotiations

Ukraine has asked Moldova for a 50% reduction on the nominal freight tariff for transporting grain by rail through Moldovan territory to the port of Constanța, sources from both countries told Reuters. A senior Ukrainian industry official told Reuters that information on potential volumes is still being collected from interested shippers and the process has not been finalised. A source within Moldovan Railways said Moldova responded with a counterproposal asking Ukraine to guarantee certain cargo volumes in exchange for the tariff reduction. The two sides are currently discussing the timetable and transit volumes of Ukrainian grain through Moldova to the port of Constanța. Moldova previously facilitated rail transport of Ukrainian grain during 2022-2023.

Estimated capacity and economic stakes

Oleg Tofilat, former head of Moldovan Railways, told Reuters that a rail transit corridor through Moldova could transport approximately 4.5 million tonnes of grain annually. Ukrainian estimates indicate a fully operational corridor could handle 10% of the country's grain exports. Moldova's Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said Moldova should not miss the opportunity to earn millions of euros from Ukrainian grain transit and rejected concerns from Moldovan farmers that Ukrainian goods could depress local production prices. Romania has handled transit of over half the total grain volume sent by Ukraine to international markets since the invasion began. Over 90% of Ukraine's grain exports pass through seaports, and agricultural products represent the largest share of Ukraine's total exports.

Diplomatic meetings and revised forecasts

Moldova's Infrastructure and Regional Development Minister Vladimir Bolea visited the Odesa region on 10 August and discussed improving rail links and expanding transit with his Ukrainian counterpart Mykola Kalashnyk. Ukraine's Agriculture Minister Taras Vîsoțki told Reuters that the ministry had reduced its grain export forecast for the 2026-2027 season to 38-40 million metric tonnes, down from a previous estimate of 43 million tonnes, due to Russian attacks on ports. Analysts at APK-Inform also reduced their forecast on Monday.

Black Sea attacks intensify

Reuters reported last week that in July alone, Ukraine recorded 35 attacks on ships in ports and 22 attacks on ships at sea. The intensification of Russian strikes on maritime transport and port infrastructure has forced Kyiv to seek alternative land and rail routes to sustain export flows and keep the economy functioning.