Lula wins Brazil runoff as Trump calls vote rigged and Bolsonaro backs off

Runoff and a court-ordered extension

Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff on Sunday, 25 October, beating Flávio Bolsonaro by more than three percentage points despite Bolsonaro being a strong favourite in opinion polls. Lula had finished second to Bolsonaro in the first round on 4 October and was widely expected to lose the second round. Supreme Federal Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered polling stations kept open for two extra hours after Lula's campaign complained that bus shortages had kept some people from voting. Bolsonaro's side had also asked for more time in some states because of bad weather, and Zanin had previously served as Lula's personal lawyer before joining the court. According to an analysis of electoral records, fewer than 35,000 votes, or about 0.03% of the total, were cast in the extra window.

Trump and Bolsonaro question the count

Trump told reporters the vote looked like 'another rigged election, frankly', without offering any evidence. He indicated he would not intervene on Bolsonaro's behalf and said he got on very well with Lula. The White House has not congratulated Lula, and the State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

“Elections have to be indisputable, and it looked very bad to me.”

Bolsonaro had first called the extension a 'dirty trick' and said he would seek to annul the result. Minutes after Trump spoke, he backed away from annulment and said he would file a lawsuit accusing Lula of abusing the power of incumbency. Analysts said the margin of more than 4 million votes made annulment unlikely. Bolsonaro blamed the outcome on the political system rather than on his own defeat.

“It was not me who lost, it was the system which won.”

Bolsonaro's Liberal Party, the largest in Congress, said it accepted the outcome of the vote.

“We recognise the presidential result.”

MAGA allies push Washington to act

Several figures in Trump's orbit went further. Peter Navarro called the result a 'cautionary tale for the midterms' in an interview on Monday, and Jason Miller reshared a Bolsonaro campaign statement calling it 'impossible' to recognise the results. Steve Bannon urged Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to cut off diplomatic relations. Andrew Kolvet questioned how Lula had gained so much support between rounds and said the US should 'quietly pressure them behind the scenes'. Kari Lake, Trump's nominee as ambassador to Jamaica, was among those who raised unverified claims of corruption.

Brazil's response and markets

A Brazilian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the government expected the US to eventually recognise Lula's victory, pointing to vote numbers that were hard to dispute. The official added that if Washington refused, Brazil could at most break diplomatic ties, to China's benefit, but the US would not invade to install a puppet government. The Brazilian real slid more than 10% against the dollar and the main stock index fell 17% in the market reaction. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum welcomed the result, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said the global progressive comeback had just begun.

What comes next

Bolsonaro said federal police had ordered him to surrender his passport to prevent him from leaving the country, and he is under investigation for corruption and money laundering, which he denies. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, was sentenced last year to 27 years in jail for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election and is now under house arrest. Bolsonaro said he would pursue his lawsuit and 'organize the opposition to build a fortress against barbarism'. The US midterms came just over a week after Trump's remarks, and polls predicted his Republican Party would fare poorly.