Trump claims 'absolute control' of Strait of Hormuz as Iran insists shipping lane stays closed

Trump's claims on Truth Social

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday, August 12, 2026, insisting that the United States holds "absolute control" of the Strait of Hormuz and intends to keep it. He described the US naval blockade as a "wall of steel" that Iran "cannot do anything about." Trump asserted that Iran has no navy, no air force, and that its remaining soldiers are unpaid. He claimed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been decimated and is in retreat, while Iran's leadership is "at best uncertain." He cited 300% inflation in the Islamic Republic and declared that "the bully of the Middle East no longer exists," ending his post with "Glory to Allah!" Trump had made similar claims on Monday, telling journalists that the US controls the strait and "nobody else, only us."

Iran rejects the assertion

Iran's newly formed Gulf Strait Authority responded via X on Wednesday evening, rejecting Trump's assertions. The authority stated that repeated claims by American officials about lifting the blockade do not change "the reality on the ground."

The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and will not reopen until all of Iran's conditions are accepted.

The dispute over the strategically vital waterway for global hydrocarbon trade is seen as the trigger for the recent renewed flare-up in the Middle East.

Shipping data shows steep decline

Vessel tracking data reveals a sharp decline in traffic through the strait since the war began with a US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026. Iran closed the strait two days later through attacks on ships and threats. Before the war, 130 to 140 commercial vessels crossed daily. According to Kpler data cited by in.gr, only 8 ships transited on Tuesday, August 11, the lowest number since August 5 and below the previous 10-day average of about 12. Seven of those ships followed the route required by Tehran along the Iranian coast. The Wall Street Journal, cited by SKAI, reported 14 transits on Tuesday, with 11 following Iran's route. Monthly averages show 33 transits per day in June and 26 in July, as new Iranian attacks on ships ended an earlier agreement to open the strait.

War risk insurance for transiting the strait has risen to as much as 10% of a ship's value, according to Marsh, cited by SKAI. Although the US Navy has escorted several tankers through the strait, partially relieving energy markets, the effort remains limited. Iran does not need to defeat the US Navy; it only needs to make shipping companies, captains, and insurers fear that ships defying its warnings could be at risk. Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, explained Iran's approach.

Iran exploits the factor of fear of real danger in order to maintain a degree of control. For many international tankers, the risk-benefit ratio simply does not exist.

Ceasefire extension denied

Iran also denied that talks are underway with the US on extending their ceasefire. A high-level Iranian source told Reuters that, from Tehran's perspective, no specific date was set for when the agreement took effect, meaning there is no period to extend. This followed a report by Turkey's Anadolu agency, citing Pakistani government sources, that Iran and the US had agreed to a 60-day extension. An interim agreement reached in June called for an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, though in practice the truce has not held. Trump had signed a memorandum of understanding with Tehran less than two months ago, which was supposed to permanently end the war and reopen the strait. He had previously described Iranian leaders as much more reasonable than previous leaderships.