Bundestag backs tobacco tax hike, with packs set to near 12 euros by 2030

Bundestag vote and timetable

The Bundestag has approved a bill that raises the tobacco tax in steps over the coming years, backed by the votes of the Union and SPD coalition factions. The Finance Committee had agreed the details on Wednesday, 14 October, and the plenary vote followed on Thursday evening, 15 October. The bill now goes to the Bundesrat, the chamber of the states, which is due to decide on Friday, 16 October. No objection from the states has been signalled, so the increase is expected to become law. Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) had originally calculated the extra revenue, but the expected gains have since been revised upward.

Prices and revenue

According to Spiegel, a 20-pack of cigarettes now costs just over eight euros and is expected to reach just under 12 euros in 2030, because manufacturers and retailers pass the tax on to customers. RP Online puts the price from January at around 9.10 euros. The government hopes for additional tax revenue of about 12 billion euros within four years. RP Online reports that the tobacco tax is now expected to bring in 4.5 billion euros more in 2030, up from the 3.6 billion originally planned. Spiegel adds that fine cut tobacco for hand-rolling will also become much more expensive, while RP Online notes that the planned increase for cigars and fine cut tobacco was scaled back during negotiations. The tobacco industry doubts the revenue target and fears that smokers will move to the black market and that legal retailers will lose sales.

E-cigarettes and liquid

Vapers face a steeper rise than smokers. Handelsblatt, citing the coalition factions' bill, reports that a milliliter of liquid would be taxed at 38 cents from 2027, six cents more than now, rising to 44 cents by 2030. The original ministry proposal had set 33 cents for 2027, rising by one cent a year to 36 cents by 2030. Handelsblatt says the government and coalition factions tightened the e-cigarette rules because budget pressure grew, while cigar and cigarillo rules were eased in return.

Dustin Dahlmann, an industry representative with the Bündnis für Tabakfreien Genuss (BfTG), calculated the effect on a typical bottle.

Only through the additional tax burden will a typical 10-milliliter liquid cost 1.43 euros more in four years than it does now.

He also expects the price of such liquids, which often cost 12 euros now, to reach nearly 15 euros in 2030 once energy, wage and logistics costs are included. Dahlmann argues that none of the extra cost would flow into higher margins for manufacturers or retailers, and he expects the black market to grow because many vapers would buy illegal products to avoid the higher prices.

Health case and criticism

The government justifies the increase with budget consolidation and health protection. The German Cancer Research Center cited by Spiegel says about 131,000 people in Germany died in 2023 from tobacco-related diseases. Health experts regard higher prices as an effective way to move smokers to quit, and the 2025 Microcensus found that 19 percent of people aged 15 and over smoke. A commentary in RP Online calls the coalition dishonest, arguing that the extra income should be earmarked for health care and prevention but is not. Readers who commented on Focus online mostly doubt that health is the real aim and see a new source of budget revenue, while others welcome higher prices, especially to keep young people from smoking, and some call for more prevention.