EU finance ministers to weigh higher minimum tobacco excise at Ecofin

The proposal on the table

EU finance ministers will discuss a compromise text on tobacco taxation at the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) in Brussels on Monday, 9 November. The text was prepared by the Irish presidency of the Council of the EU and sent to national delegations to break a deadlock that has delayed the revision of rules dating from 2011. It would raise minimum excise duties on cigarettes and other tobacco products and extend a common tax framework to electronic cigarettes, heated tobacco products and new nicotine products. It would also cut the indicative allowance for private travellers moving cigarettes between EU countries from 800 to 200 sticks.

Minimum excise schedule

Under the draft, the minimum specific excise duty on conventional cigarettes would be 140 euros per 1,000 cigarettes from July 2028. That floor would rise to 170 euros from 2030 and reach 200 euros from 2032. In the same year, the requirement that specific excise duties equal at least 60% of the weighted average retail price would apply in full, subject to the planned exemptions. Sources stress that the EU sets minimum levels rather than shelf prices, so member states can impose higher taxes and the final pack price would depend on national policy.

Greece's request for a longer transition

Greece is one of ten member states that would receive a transition period running until 2036, alongside Italy, Bulgaria, Spain, Croatia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Portugal, Romania and Slovenia. Athens wants gentler increases and more time to adjust, arguing that higher taxes could fuel smuggling and reduce tax revenue. The government also points to the importance of the domestic tobacco manufacturing industry for the national economy. Pack prices in Greece are reported at roughly 4.20 to 5 euros, and taxes already absorb most of the retail price.

What the KEPE scenarios show

A study by the Centre for Planning and Economic Research (KEPE), published in September 2025, used an average retail price of 4.17 euros per pack, based on 2023 data, as its reference. Its scenarios put the price at 5.91, 9.02 or 9.73 euros, depending on how the fixed and proportional excise components change. Two higher-rate scenarios produce prices of 11.58 and 13.82 euros, increases of 177.7% and 231.5% over the reference price. KEPE describes these as hypothetical simulations rather than forecasts of Monday's decisions, and they assume full pass-through of taxes to consumers with producer margins unchanged.

Reference price (2023 data)4.17

Scenario A5.91

Scenario B9.02

Scenario C9.73

Scenario D11.58

Scenario E13.82

Reference price (2023 data)

4.17 euros per pack

Scenario A

5.91 euros per pack

Scenario B

9.02 euros per pack

Scenario C

9.73 euros per pack

Scenario D

11.58 euros per pack

Scenario E

13.82 euros per pack

Data from the article text

What happens next

Ministers will take up the proposal at the Monday session, and whether they reach a political agreement that day is not yet known. The Irish presidency is trying to overcome the impasse that has held up the negotiations. Even if the EU adopts higher minimums, the articles make clear that the final price of a pack will depend on each member state's tax decisions.