Democrat James Talarico wins Texas Senate race despite Elon Musk's near half-billion spending

A Democratic win in Texas

Democrat James Talarico, a 37-year-old Texas state representative, defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the state's U.S. Senate seat in the midterm elections held on 3 November 2026. Paxton, the Texas attorney general, had the backing of Donald Trump, but he had been caught up in repeated scandals. Greek outlets describe the result as the first Democratic win in a Texas Senate race in decades, though some reports date the last one to 1988 and others to 1994. Talarico, a former high school teacher, has sat in the Texas House since 2018. Paxton, who beat John Cornyn two to one in the May runoff, ran a largely passive campaign, giving few interviews and declining to take part in a televised debate.

Musk's money and the Paxton race

Elon Musk, the world's richest person, spent heavily to keep Texas in Republican hands and to back Republican candidates across the country. Estimates of his total midterm spending differ: one puts it at about 446 million dollars, another at around 445 million, and a higher count at no less than 474 million dollars, of which 224 million went to Texas according to a CNBC analysis of campaign finance data. Figures for the Paxton race alone run from at least 212 million to about 220 million dollars. The Financial Times reported that his political action committee gave 47 million dollars to support Paxton, on top of the 158 million he had offered to the Senate Leadership Fund in September. Much of the money flowed through super PACs, which can raise unlimited sums but cannot fund candidates directly or coordinate with them.

Record ad spending

Advertising costs for the 2026 cycle were expected to set a record. AdImpact projected 11.6 billion dollars in election ad costs, more than in the 2024 presidential race. OpenSecrets, which tracks political finance, put the 2026 cycle at 11.9 billion dollars, including hundreds of millions for Democrats. AdImpact's figure is a projection, while OpenSecrets gives its number for the full 2026 electoral cycle.

AdImpact projection11.6

OpenSecrets estimate for 2026 cycle11.9

AdImpact projection

11.6 billion USD

OpenSecrets estimate for 2026 cycle

11.9 billion USD

Data from the article text

Beyond Texas

Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress, a result Greek outlets tie to a wave of Democratic wins across the country. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa beat Republican Greg Abbott in the governor's race, a setback for Donald Trump, whose election Musk had helped. Up to the day of the vote, Musk had urged his followers on X to vote Republican. Afterward he posted a joke that his space lasers had not worked this time, and he remarked that data centres in space now looked especially attractive. In October, when Talarico temporarily stepped back from public campaigning, Musk had posted that something was badly wrong with him, and Talarico replied by criticising a political system that lets a trillionaire buy his own senator.

Markets and data centres

SpaceX shares fell 3.8% and Tesla shares 3.6% in premarket trading on Wednesday, 4 November, both underperforming the wider market. Analysts and experts expect Democrats to tighten oversight of data centre projects and push for construction moratoria, as local opposition grows over electricity costs. For Musk, a bigger challenge may be slower permitting for SpaceX data centres, which are central to plans presented to investors ahead of the company's planned initial public offering. In October, Musk threatened retaliation on X after a report said Democrats would investigate his companies if they won Congress. Development of Tesla's Austin operations and SpaceX's Starbase facility depends heavily on decisions by Texas state authorities.