Swiss firms plan 1.0% pay rises for 2027, leaving a real gain of just 0.2%

Real pay gain shrinks to 0.2%

UBS published its periodic survey on 3 November 2026, polling nearly 400 Swiss companies across 22 sectors about their pay plans. Firms expect average nominal wage increases of 1.0% in 2027, slightly below the 1.1% they plan for the current year. Around three quarters of the companies expect inflation of between 0 and 1% next year, and UBS itself forecasts 0.8%. Once that inflation is deducted, real wage growth comes to 0.2%, down from 0.4% expected for 2026 and 0.7% recorded for 2025. The bank's own verdict on the figure is blunt.

“The value of 0.2 percent lies below both the long-term average and the real wage growth expected for 2026.”

2025

0.7 %

2026

0.4 %

2027

0.2 %

Data from the article text

Energy leads, watchmaking trails

The survey shows wide spreads by sector. Energy, utilities and waste disposal lead with planned increases of up to 1.5%, while chemicals, pharmaceuticals and metals are at 1.2%, according to Blick and Tages Anzeiger. Watch and jewellery firms plan 0.7%, and retail is also named among the sectors with the smallest increases. Banks, insurers, construction and healthcare cluster at 1%. Adjusted for inflation, 20 Minuten reports real gains of 0.7% in energy and 0.4% in chemicals, pharma and metals, no real increase in retail, and a real pay cut in the watch industry. Blick links the energy lead to the Iran war, noting that Zug-based Glencore's energy-trading profit in the first half of 2026 was 66 times its level a year earlier.

Energy, utilities and waste disposal1.5%

Chemicals and pharma1.2%

Metals1.2%

Most other sectors (incl. banks, insurers, construction, healthcare)1%

Watch and jewellery0.7%

Energy, utilities and waste disposal

1.5 %

Chemicals and pharma

1.2 %

Metals

1.2 %

Most other sectors (incl. banks, insurers, construction, healthcare)

1 %

Watch and jewellery

0.7 %

Data from the article text

Subdued outlook and a skills premium

Firms are more upbeat about the economy than a year ago, and nearly half expect a moderate upswing, with confidence up in every sector and most of all in industry. UBS forecasts Swiss economic growth of 1.5% for 2027, excluding the effects of large sporting events, and 20 Minuten notes that this forecast holds only if the Iran war does not escalate and energy prices stop rising. The federal government has also raised its GDP forecast for the coming year. Labour market prospects remain subdued, with most companies expecting unemployment to stay unchanged and headcount to stagnate. Meret Mügeli, a UBS economist, put the gap between the two trends this way:

“Economic prospects have improved significantly, though the recovery is reaching the labour market and wages only slowly.”

Artificial intelligence is now widely used, yet AI skills show up only occasionally in higher pay adjustments, according to the survey. Companies say they are more willing to reward those skills financially as AI integration deepens. UBS also expects the Swiss National Bank to make a rate move in March.