Swiss vote on capping population at 10 million, a move that could unravel EU free movement deal
Polls are open Sunday for a referendum that would freeze permanent residency below 10 million by 2050. A separate ballot seeks to tighten access to civilian service. First results are expected in the afternoon.
Two closely watched ballots
Swiss voters are deciding on two national referendums on 14 June. The first, pushed by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (UDC), would amend the constitution to cap the permanent resident population at 10 million before 2050. The second would harden eligibility for civilian service, reinforcing the primacy of military conscription. Most ballots were cast early by post; polling stations close at noon, with initial projections due later in the day.
The 10-million cap
Backers of the “No 10-million Switzerland” initiative argue the country of 9.5 million is straining under housing shortages, rising rents, traffic jams, crowded trains, higher crime, an overburdened health system and falling education standards. If the cap were breached, Bern would have to restrict asylum and could be forced to terminate the free movement agreement with the European Union within two years, along with other bilateral accords on asylum and security.
Switzerland is a small country that cannot be extended. We do not want to welcome all of Europe or all the misery of the world.
The government, parliament, trade unions and employers all oppose the measure. Opponents warn it would worsen staffing shortages, especially in healthcare, might actually increase asylum claims, and would jeopardise relations with Brussels just as ties are stabilising.
Polls suggest narrow defeat
Late surveys give the “no” side a slight edge. An SSR and a Tamedia poll both show 52% rejection, while YouGov puts the figure at 55%. The trend has hardened against the initiative since earlier polling. Campaign spending reportedly reached 15 million Swiss francs.
- SSR
- 52 %
- Tamedia
- 52 %
- YouGov
- 55 %
Civilian service reform likely to pass
Campaigning on the second issue was low-key. The reform is expected to tighten the rules for civilian service, ensuring it remains an exception and does not make itself more attractive than military duty. Surveys suggest the measure will be approved.
