World
The US under Trump: second term
Updated 2h ago
2/5
US foreign policy under the Trump administration is shifting decisively from multilateralism toward a doctrine of transactional bilateral bargaining, placing pressure on established alliances, trade relationships, and global institutions.
The US increased tariffs on EU automobiles and launched a diplomatic offensive against the International Criminal Court, adding new dimensions to existing trade and international relations tensions.
State of play
NATO allies are grappling with the fiscal impact of the alliance's decision to raise defence-related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, with at least 3.5% allocated to core defence. This target, agreed under sustained pressure from President Trump, necessitates significant reallocation in European budgets and intensifies debates on EU strategic autonomy, as many European NATO members face nearly tripling annual defence outlays. All 32 NATO members are projected to meet the longstanding 2% of GDP defence spending target in 2026, a dramatic shift from 2023 when only 10 allies met the benchmark. Five allies are on track to meet the new 3.5% core defence goal and 17 to hit the 1.5% broader defence and security-related spending guideline, well ahead of the 2035 deadline. The 5% pledge could require roughly $1.9 trillion in additional annual spending across NATO by 2035.
Alliance Cohesion
President Trump continues to link US security guarantees, including Article 5, to allies meeting the 5% defence spending target, publicly warning that countries lagging behind could face reduced American commitment. This rhetoric reinforces perceptions of US security guarantees as conditional and transactional, contrasting with previous administrations' emphasis on solidarity. Despite earlier criticisms, President Trump concluded the recent NATO summit with praise for allies' defence spending progress and a declaration of 'great unity'. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has urged members to present concrete national plans for delivering on the 5% GDP defence and security spending pledge, while also acknowledging progress with an estimated $258 billion more invested in defence by allies in 2025 and 2026. The US is phasing out security assistance programs for European militaries on Russia’s border, ending funding by September 2026, pushing frontline NATO states to finance their own deterrence. The Trump administration is advancing a “NATO 3.0” strategy, envisioning Europe taking on primary responsibility for its security while the US reallocates attention to other regions.
Trade and Aid Policies
The Trump administration is escalating tariff threats against EU member states, targeting countries that implement digital services taxes with warnings of 100% tariffs and launching a Section 301 investigation against Germany over pharmaceutical pricing. The US Trade Representative confirmed that Washington reimposed higher tariffs on EU products, including automobiles, after the EU failed to implement the ratified 'Turnberry' trade agreement by July 4, 2026. The dismantling of USAID and associated aid cuts have led to hundreds of thousands of excess deaths and could contribute to up to 9.4 million deaths by 2030, according to a February 2026 analysis. New executive orders expand President Trump’s direct control over financial and tech regulation, with potential foreign-policy implications. The US has significantly reduced its official development assistance, with funding down to $28.5 billion budgeted for 2026, and rescissions potentially reducing this to $8.1 billion. This shift channels humanitarian funding through the UN at a much smaller volume, tying support to country-level bargains aligned with US trade and security priorities. Trump officials have warned that further cuts to US funding for UN agencies are possible unless multilateral bodies adopt a “trade over aid” model. Congress passed a $50 billion foreign aid bill on February 3, 2026, aiming to reinvest in aid and reassert legislative authority over the administration's cuts. The US has also increased import duties on cars and trucks from the EU from 15% to 25%, presented as punishment for the EU's failure to adhere to an agreed trade deal.
Domestic Enforcement
The administration's domestic agenda is gaining momentum with Congressional backing, as the House passed a roughly $70 billion bill to fund immigration enforcement for three years, providing major new resources for ICE and Border Patrol with few restrictions. Judicial pushback continues, with a federal judge in California blocking administration policies on courthouse arrests and extended detention in temporary facilities, calling them arbitrary and capricious. President Trump declared the June 17 ceasefire with Iran ended but agreed to continue negotiations, giving Tehran a Saturday deadline to publicly commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Executive orders are tightening federal control over immigration enforcement, penalizing “sanctuary” jurisdictions, and requiring independent regulatory agencies to submit major regulations to the White House for review, reinforcing a unitary executive approach. The Supreme Court's ruling on June 29, 2026, allows the president to remove heads of independent agencies without cause, strengthening White House control over regulatory bodies. The Trump administration released a regulatory plan targeting the elimination of 702 existing federal rules, with projected savings of $1.5 trillion by the end of September, impacting areas like environmental protection and financial oversight. The Supreme Court has also sustained significant elements of Trump's immigration crackdown, including rulings that enable the administration to strip Temporary Protected Status from certain nationals and tighten migrant participation rights. President Trump has reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports and imposed a 20% levy on cargo value for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a diplomatic offensive on July 13, 2026, accusing the International Criminal Court of waging a 'war' on American sovereignty through legal means.
Key events
Full chronicle464
This week
- US increased tariffs on EU cars and trucks from 15% to 25% on May 1, 2026.
- NATO's 2026 Defence Investment Update confirmed rapid European moves toward the 5% GDP target.
- Secretary of State Rubio initiated a diplomatic offensive against the International Criminal Court.