Orange warnings across Ireland

Met Éireann has issued Status Orange rain warnings for six counties ahead of Storm Austen. Cork, Kerry and Waterford fall under an orange warning from 10pm on Thursday, 22 October, until 5am on Friday, 23 October. Dublin, Wexford and Wicklow are covered separately from 2am to 8am on Friday, 23 October. A nationwide Status Yellow wind and rain warning takes effect at 7pm on Thursday, 22 October, and runs until 8am on Friday, with the forecaster warning of difficult travel, localised flooding and fallen trees.

Forecasters expect the worst weather late on Thursday. Very heavy rain is due to develop in the southwest on Thursday afternoon and spread northeast during the evening, with isolated thunderstorms and cyclonic variable winds reaching gale force in places overnight. Lowest temperatures on Thursday night are forecast at 5 to 8 degrees. Orange marine storm warnings cover the sea from Wicklow Head to Dungarvan and Valentia, plus the Irish Sea south of Anglesey, where storm force 10 winds are possible at times between 9pm on Thursday and 7am on Friday.

Track still uncertain

Met Éireann says the storm's exact path is still unsettled and will determine where the heaviest rain and strongest winds fall. Its statement reads:

“There is still some uncertainty in the exact track of the storm, which will affect where the heaviest rain and strongest winds will occur.”

The forecaster adds that small changes in the path would shift the worst weather, so warnings could be updated as confidence grows. Saturated ground raises the flood risk, particularly in built-up and low-lying areas, because intense rainfall could run off quickly. Aoife Kealy, deputy head of forecasts at Met Éireann, said the strongest winds look most likely in the south, closest to the low pressure. She added that warnings could be updated on 21 or 22 October as the track becomes clearer.

Britain and the Channel Islands

The UK Met Office has issued an amber wind warning for Cornwall and parts of west Devon, valid from 3am until 10am BST on Friday, 23 October. Gusts of up to 80mph (130km/h) are expected around exposed coasts, with 60-70mph gusts elsewhere, and flying debris could cause injuries or danger to life. A broader yellow warning covers large parts of southern England and south Wales from late Thursday until 2pm on Friday. Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster Tom Crabtree said:

“We have an impactful period of weather on the way, and the potential for disruption in places, which has resulted in the system being named.”

National Rail has urged passengers to check their entire journey, as strong winds could slow trains and fallen trees could block tracks or damage power lines. A Jersey Met forecast for Guernsey expects gale force nine gusts of up to 75mph on Thursday night and Friday morning. Guernsey Ports has told boat owners to check mooring lines, fenders and shore power connections before conditions worsen. Harbour master James Way said:

“The arrival of Storm Austen is a timely reminder to check your vessels are ready for the winter, if you haven't had the chance to already.”

Netherlands and what follows

Weeronline expects Storm Austen could reach the Netherlands toward the end of the week. Wednesday, 21 October starts sunny before showers arrive from the southwest, and Thursday, 22 October brings changeable autumn weather with temperatures up to 13 degrees. Friday, 23 October turns stormier as the system moves in from the southwest, and gales are not ruled out, with most of the wind expected in the afternoon or evening. Beyond the storm, conditions are expected to improve briefly after Friday, but another low pressure system could bring further rain and strong winds over the October Bank Holiday weekend. Forecasters also point to a strong El Niño in the Pacific that could bring wetter, wilder weather to the UK and Ireland this autumn.