Depression Charles set to bring 100-120 km/h gusts to mainland Portugal Wednesday

Track and timing

Portugal's Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) expects depression Charles to reach mainland Portugal on Wednesday, 11 November, after first affecting Madeira. The IPMA named the system on Monday, 9 November, and says its track and intensity still carry high uncertainty. On Monday the centre was located at 33°N 31°W and moving east, and it is forecast to sit north of Madeira at 00 UTC on 11 November with a central pressure of 991 hPa. On current data, the most likely path takes the centre between Sines and Cabo Carvoeiro, although the regions hit hardest still depend on the final track. The IPMA's dated steps run from Monday to Wednesday afternoon.

Madeira first

Deterioration on Madeira is expected between the end of Tuesday, 10 November, and the morning of Wednesday, 11 November. The IPMA forecasts persistent rain that is sometimes heavy, with more than 100 mm possible in 12 hours in some places, mainly in mountain areas. Southwest winds should gust between 80 and 100 km/h and may reach 130 km/h in the highlands. Southwest swells of 3.5 to 4.5 metres are expected on the island's south coast. The institute says the Azores will not be affected by the depression.

Mainland winds, rain and waves

On the mainland, the worsening should begin from late morning on Wednesday, 11 November, although the most affected regions depend on the track. Winds are expected to blow first from the south and then turn to the north as the depression moves, with gusts of 100 to 120 km/h on its southern edge and possibly higher in places. Rain is forecast to be sometimes heavy across much of the territory, and the Santarém district and the Lezíria do Tejo region could also be affected. Southwest waves of 4 to 6 metres are forecast south of Cabo Carvoeiro from Wednesday afternoon. The IPMA plans to issue orange warnings, the level it uses for a moderate to high weather risk, and has not ruled out more serious warnings for some regions after the next model updates.

Warnings already in force

Depression Bruna, a separate system, is expected to remain almost stationary northwest of the Iberian Peninsula until Friday, 13 November. Its fronts keep bringing showers and thunderstorms, and the two systems will overlap rather than leave a real break between them. On Monday, the IPMA had 16 mainland districts under yellow warnings for rain, wind, thunder and rough seas along the coast. Observador reported that an update that day also placed Castelo Branco, Évora, Portalegre and Santarém under orange warnings for the night into Tuesday, and the Santarém district is already under an orange warning for strong wind.

Spain and expert concern

Spain's Aemet says Charles will worsen stormy conditions across the western half of the Iberian Peninsula and the Canary Islands, with impacts mainly on the Atlantic side between Wednesday and Thursday. The name comes from a European south-west group that includes Spain, France, Portugal, Belgium, Luxembourg and Andorra, and Charles is the third named system of the 2026-2027 season after dana Adam and storm Bruna. Remnants of Bruna keep the red warning active in southern Ávila and northern Cáceres. Duarte Costa, a commentator for SIC, considers the second depression much more worrying than the first.

“This week, on Wednesday, we may have a very dangerous and very destructive phenomenon.”

Costa said that, given the forecast, no amount of prevention and caution would be excessive.