Spain's government warns 10 GW of data centers would raise power generation costs 200% by 2030

Government warns of cost and emissions risks

Spain's government warns that an 'abrupt' arrival of data centers in the electricity system would have 'unintended consequences' for power prices and for CO2 emissions tied to the generation mix. The warning appears in the regulatory impact analysis for a draft Royal Decree setting energy, environmental and resilience requirements for data centers, a document sent to the Consejo de Estado after the public hearing phase. The report was prepared by the ministries for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, Economy, Commerce and Business, and Digital Transformation and Civil Service.

The memo compares 10 GW of installed data center capacity by 2030 with 1 GW. It estimates the larger load would raise combined-cycle gas operation by 107%, total variable generation cost by 200% and CO2 emissions by 65%. Because data centers draw a steady load, combined-cycle plants would have to cover periods when renewable output is low. The government proposes requirements built on additionality and hourly matching, so that data centers do not take clean power from the rest of the economy.

“These results show the adverse effects arising from an uncontrolled rollout of data centers.”

Combined-cycle operation107%

Total variable generation cost200%

CO2 emissions65%

Combined-cycle operation

107 %

Total variable generation cost

200 %

CO2 emissions

65 %

Data from the article text

IEA review praises renewables and urges electrification

The International Energy Agency, an autonomous body linked to the OECD, published its Spain 2026 review on 5 November. It praises the country's renewables build-out, with capacity more than doubling between 2015 and 2025 to reach 119 GW, and an energy intensity improvement of 2.4% a year over the last decade. The renewables share of electricity generation rose from 35% to 56% over the same period.

“Faster electrification in transport, buildings and industry will be essential to reach Spain's energy and climate targets.”

The agency estimates that without the new renewable capacity, gas imports for power generation in 2024 would have been almost 40% higher, avoiding costs of $26 billion. Imports still covered almost 70% of Spain's total energy consumption in 2024.

201535%

202556%

2015

35 %

2025

56 %

Data from the article text

Grid, nuclear and tax recommendations

The IEA says high electricity taxes send a signal against electrification, since fossil fuels face a lighter tax burden. It asks Spain to reconsider the planned nuclear closure dates and to study 'case by case' a postponement, citing the extension granted to Almaraz. It also calls grid stability and resilience a key challenge after the April 2025 blackout. The agency recommends rebalancing the renewables mix toward more wind and storage, since the expansion has leaned heavily on large solar plants.

Curtailment and market savings

The renewables association Appa, presenting its annual study on 23 October, says renewable curtailment rose 55.2% in 2025 to 19.69 TWh, enough to supply 6.3 million homes for a year. Renewable generation grew only 1% in 2025 despite 12.5 GW of new capacity, while gas-fired generation rose more than 16%. Appa's director general, José María González Moya, said that reducing curtailment must be a priority.

Appa estimates renewables cut the daily market cost of electricity by 7,589 million euros in 2025, 8.8% more than in 2024, or 60.71 euros per MWh. Without them, it calculates, the market would have reached 126 euros per MWh. Renewables supplied 54.3% of the electricity consumed in the country that year.

Andalusia pushes back on the decree

According to ABC Tu Diario en Español, Andalusia's artificial intelligence department filed eleven objections to the draft decree, arguing that its requirements are 'even unattainable' in summer, when temperatures can reach 46 degrees. It asked for flexibility on energy use (PUE) and water use (WUE). The same outlet reports that Industry Minister Jordi Hereu rejected all of the objections, keeping the restrictions to avoid future resistance to needed infrastructure. The government reportedly wants the decree approved before the general elections on 29 November.