Spain's inflation holds at 4.9% in October as fuel prices ease, core stays at 3.1%

Headline rate holds steady

Spain's consumer price index rose 4.9% year on year in October, the same rate recorded in September, according to the flash estimate the National Statistics Institute (INE) published on Friday, 30 October. Prices are back at levels last seen in February 2023, and the rate has now stayed above 4% for three consecutive months. Some analysts had expected a steeper slowdown, so the reading came in above their forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes unprocessed food and energy products, held at 3.1%.

What pushed prices in different directions

Fuel prices fell during the month, which pulled the headline rate down. The INE said fuels and lubricants for private vehicles cut prices in October, a reversal from the increase seen in the same month of 2025. Food prices rose by less than a year earlier. Gas, liquid fuels and tourist packages pushed prices up, according to the reporting on the monthly figures.

Fuel tax cuts and the energy backdrop

The fuel tax reduction approved in the third anti-crisis package, agreed on 29 September and later validated by the standing committee of Congress, will continue through November. The original plan called for a cut of 20 cents per litre in October, 13 cents in November and 6 cents in December. Sources differ on the size of the gasoline discount, with one describing diesel relief at 20 cents per litre and gasoline relief at 5 cents. Energy prices have risen across the globe since late February because of the war in the Middle East, according to El Pais coverage, and Funcas says its inflation forecasts remain heavily dependent on the conflict in Iran and on fiscal measures.

Monthly path and what comes next

The year-on-year rate was 2.3% in both January and February, then rose to 3.4% in March and settled at 3.2% in the second quarter. It climbed to 3.6% in July and 4.3% in August before reaching 4.9% in September, and October held at that level after four consecutive months of increases.

2026-01

2.3 %

2026-02

2.3 %

2026-03

3.4 %

2026-07

3.6 %

2026-08

4.3 %

2026-09

4.9 %

2026-10

4.9 %

Data from the article text

Pensions are indexed to inflation, and La Razon reports that the 2026 revaluation was 2.7%, worth about 572 euros a year or roughly 40.85 euros a month in 14 payments for an average retirement pension. Pension increases for next year are expected to be larger, because the calculation uses the average annual CPI for the twelve months from December to November. The final figure for this year will be known at the end of November, when the INE publishes its flash estimate for that month on 27 November, with confirmation on 15 December. Funcas estimates the average reference inflation rate will reach 3.6%, expects the rate to stay near 4.5% in the coming months, and forecasts annual averages of 3.7% for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027.