Spain's inflation rises to 4.9% in September, highest since February 2023

The September reading

The National Statistics Institute (INE) published its final September figures on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, confirming the flash estimate released at the end of September. Annual consumer price inflation rose six tenths from 4.3% in August to 4.9%, the highest rate since February 2023, when it stood at 6%. Prices also rose 0.3% month on month, and the harmonised index used for European comparisons reached 5.0% on an annual basis. The annual rate has climbed for three consecutive months and has been above 4% for two of them. Core inflation, which strips out energy and unprocessed food, rose two tenths to 3.1%. Sources differ on how far back that level goes: La Vanguardia places it at the highest since January 2024, while El Confidencial says since March 2024.

What is pushing prices up

Fuels and lubricants for personal vehicles were the main driver, rising in September after falling in the same month of 2025, which creates a base effect. The transport group's annual rate reached 10.5%, one point above August, and air passenger fares fell by less than they had a year earlier. Recreation, sport and culture gained almost 2.5 points to 3.6% annually, mostly because package holiday prices dropped less than in September 2025. Clothing and footwear rose 6.9% in the month as the autumn and winter season began, while housing climbed 1.1% month on month, pushed by electricity and liquid fuels. Food and non-alcoholic beverages were 2.7% higher than a year earlier, though their cumulative change since the Iran war began is -0.4%.

Government response: fuel rebate stays, no electricity cuts

The Ministry of Economy, headed by Carlos Cuerpo, said the 4.9% rate keeps the 20-cent-per-litre tax cut on petrol and diesel in force from 1 November. The third protection package, approved at the end of September and in force since 1 October, runs until year-end and carries a cost of 12,000 million euros for the budgets, according to La Vanguardia. Under the safeguard clause, the rebate stays because fuel inflation cleared the 15% threshold; without it, the rebate would have fallen to 13 cents in November, according to El Confidencial. Electricity inflation of 11.4% stayed below the same 15% trigger, so there will be no cuts to VAT or the Special Electricity Tax. The ministry framed the September figure this way:

The annual CPI rate for September stands at 4.9%, mainly because of higher fuel prices, reflecting the persistence of the energy shock from the war in Iran.

The Permanent Deputation of Congress is due to validate the package on Friday, 16 October, because the Cortes are currently dissolved.

Regional spread

Prices rose in every autonomous community, according to El Mundo. Castilla-La Mancha and Galicia led with 5.5% each, followed by Castilla y León at 5.4%. Canarias and Aragón recorded the smallest increases, at 4.4% each. In Castilla y León, prices rose three tenths month on month, the same monthly pace as nationally.

Outlook

The Bank of Spain's projections published this week put average inflation at 3.9% for 2026 and 3.7% for 2027, even with the package in place. Its core inflation projections are 3.4% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027. Economists cited by El País read the figure as a sign that Spain has reached the peak of the current inflation wave, driven by the Middle East conflict, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and dearer oil. El Confidencial reports that fuel costs are starting to spread into the rest of the shopping basket. Before the conflict, inflation had been only slightly above 2% in the first two months of the year, according to La Vanguardia.