Energy & Trade

Shell's profit nearly doubles to $10.8bn on Iran war fuel margins, buyback raised to $5bn

Shell's adjusted third-quarter earnings reached $10.81 billion, above the $10.3 billion analyst consensus, as refining margins hit a record $42 a barrel during the Iran war.

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In brief

Earnings beat analyst forecasts

Shell reported adjusted earnings of $10.81 billion for the third quarter on Thursday, 29 October, ahead of a consensus forecast of $10.3 billion from analysts. The result compares with $5.43 billion in the same quarter of 2025 and $9.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, making it the company's second-highest quarterly profit on record. Operating cash flow came to $21.04 billion, well above the $16.13 billion analysts had expected. Revenue, however, fell short at $92.85 billion against an expected $99.53 billion. Earnings per share were $1.93, compared with analyst expectations of $1.79. One account put the profit at $12.1 billion, a figure that does not match the company's adjusted number.

Shell quarterly profitbillion dollars

Data from the article text

Refining margins and gas prices lift results

The war in Iran, which one report says has lasted nine months, damaged refineries and tightened fuel supply, pushing up diesel prices. Shell's refining margin, the amount it earns from turning a barrel of crude into fuel, rose to a record $42, compared with $24 in the previous quarter. Profit from refined fuels reached $3.8 billion. The upstream division contributed $3.19 billion, and integrated gas, which includes liquefied natural gas trading, added $3.04 billion. European gas prices passed 100 euros per megawatt hour, the level of the 2022 crisis. Shell's Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar was damaged by an Iranian missile and its output has fallen, while low water levels on the Rhine over the summer affected operations at the company's German refining and chemical plants.

Shell refining margin per barrel$ per barrel

Data from the article text

Buyback and shareholder payouts

Shell said it will raise its share buyback to $5 billion for the next three months, up from $3 billion a quarter. The increase reverses a May decision to trim repurchases in order to protect the balance sheet during the Iran war. It follows larger shareholder distributions from TotalEnergies and Eni. Chief executive Wael Sawan said:

“Our strong delivery allows us to announce a $5bn share buyback programme for the next three months.”

Wael Sawan, chief executive of Shell

The dividend came to 39.06 US cents per share, close to the 39 cents analysts expected. Net debt stood at $39.73 billion, below the $42.04 billion analysts had projected. Shell's profit between April and September was just short of the $20.9 billion it made in the first half of 2022, after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered an energy crisis.

Hormuz, gas and the windfall tax debate

The Strait of Hormuz was fully blocked for a long period, and tens of tankers now pass through it each day, though still fewer than before the war in the Middle East. Higher prices have therefore helped producers while consumers pay more for fuel and gas. In the Netherlands, the House of Representatives backed a motion from Pro and D66 in spring calling for an extra levy on the high profits of oil and gas companies. Applying such a tax to Shell is difficult because the company is no longer Dutch, so options are being examined at European level.

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