Russian satellite closed to under 1 km of ICEYE craft, experts liken it to attack rehearsal

Mid-October approach

In mid-October 2026 the Russian military satellite Kosmos 2612 moved in on X36, a commercial radar-imaging satellite run by the Finnish company ICEYE that supplies data to Western governments and armed forces, including Ukraine. Analysts told Reuters the gap fell to less than one kilometre, and some put it at a few hundred metres or even less. Earlier in October the Russian craft had been several hundred kilometres away and was closing quickly. After the approach, Kosmos 2612 pulled back to about 400 kilometres from X36.

Washington's accusation

On 21 October 2026 US Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno posted on X about the episode, describing the Russian satellite's conduct in these words:

“Russia's COSMOS 2612 military satellite has been exhibiting threatening behavior by intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite”

DiNanno added that the manoeuvre was consistent with operations involving weapons in orbit. Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, a US firm that trains American space forces, and a former US Air Force intelligence officer, told Reuters the approach looked like an attempted attack. He called it the most aggressive Russian posture toward another country's satellites he had seen. In his view, getting that close was unnecessary for reconnaissance or electronic jamming, so Moscow appears to be rehearsing how to destroy the satellite.

German space expert Michael Traut was more cautious. He said the data alone do not show with certainty what Russia intends. Close approaches can serve inspection, surveillance or interference, depending on a spacecraft's technical capabilities, and every scenario needs weighing, from a temporary loss of function to permanent disabling. The Russian Ministry of Defence did not respond to Reuters' request for comment. Moscow has repeatedly warned that Western commercial satellites helping Ukraine could become legitimate targets for retaliation.

Two more Russian craft heading for X37

Slingshot Aerospace, a US space intelligence company, describes Kosmos 2612 publicly as a satellite meant for inspecting and maintaining other spacecraft. It belongs to a group of six military satellites Russia launched in April. Analysts say four of that group have been near X36 since May, when ICEYE changed the satellite's position and the Russian craft answered with new manoeuvres.

According to Gillinger, two other Russian satellites linked to Kosmos 2612 are now moving toward the orbit of ICEYE's X37. COMSPOC, a US company that tracks objects in orbit, says the Russian craft are increasingly well placed to approach X37. Both X36 and X37 are registered in the United States.

ICEYE's response and open questions

ICEYE president Rafał Modrzewski told Reuters earlier that the company had moved X36 after previous Russian manoeuvres, and that Moscow then carried out further moves. Ann Stevens, who runs ICEYE's US operations, said X36 is still operational and that the radar network can keep delivering services even when disrupted. Officials and analysts have not established whether the approaches were a rehearsal for an attack or a surveillance exercise. The Russian side has not commented on the Western assessments, so the question of intent remains open while the satellites stay in position near the X37 orbit.