Rubio and Vance lead Republican 2028 poll, Ossoff and Buttigieg top Democrats

Republicans: Rubio and Vance lead the early field

A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Thursday, 12 November, put Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance at the front of the Republican field for 2028. About 45% of Republican voters surveyed called Rubio an "excellent" presidential candidate, and 43% said the same about Vance. The survey covered 1,705 American adults nationwide, including roughly 500 registered voters from each of the two main parties, and fieldwork closed on Monday, 9 November. The margin of error is 5 percentage points. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis drew 32% excellent ratings among Republicans, while Donald Trump Jr. and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas were described as having supporters as well as numerous critics.

Marco Rubio45%

JD Vance43%

Ron DeSantis32%

Marco Rubio

45 %

JD Vance

43 %

Ron DeSantis

32 %

Data from the article text

Trump's position complicates the picture. His approval rating sits close to the lowest level of his career, yet he remains central to debates in both parties. In a CBS interview broadcast on Sunday, 8 November, he said he would not necessarily back a candidate in the Republican primaries, and he has asked allies whether they prefer Vance or Rubio. Both men have distanced themselves from the war in Iran, which a Spanish daily calls one of the main reasons for the Republican setback in the midterm elections on 3 November. The same paper credits Rubio with designing the operation to detain Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and describes Vance as a newcomer to politics who sits further to the right and generally follows Trump's line.

Democrats: Ossoff and Buttigieg share the lead

Among Democrats, Jon Ossoff and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg each drew 29% calling them excellent candidates, tying for first place. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom each received 23%, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez received 15%. Ossoff has built his profile through sharp criticism of Donald Trump, whom he has called corrupt and unfit for the presidency. He won a new Senate term in Georgia by 18 points, in a state Trump carried by 2 points in 2024. Josh Shapiro, who won the Pennsylvania governor's race with about 60% of the vote against 38% for his Republican opponent, also draws attention. Shapiro criticizes Netanyahu and supports a Palestinian state, while backing continued US military aid.

Jon Ossoff29%

Pete Buttigieg29%

Kamala Harris23%

Gavin Newsom23%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15%

Jon Ossoff

29 %

Pete Buttigieg

29 %

Kamala Harris

23 %

Gavin Newsom

23 %

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

15 %

Data from the article text

An open race with no declared candidates

Harris, who will turn 64 in 2028, lost in 2024 in five states that also elected Democratic senators or a governor, so a new run would require her to explain why voters backing her party declined to back her. According to the Wall Street Journal, her husband Doug Emhoff said privately that he would prefer she not make another run. Democrats regained majorities in both chambers of Congress and won Senate races in states long considered Republican strongholds. Morgan Jackson, an adviser to Roy Cooper, who won a Senate seat for Democrats in North Carolina, cautioned against overreading the result:

“We should not confuse their defeats with our victory.”

OKO.press notes that the Democratic margins were so large that it is hard to judge how much each winning candidate owes to personal strengths, as opposed to the wish to check Trump. No candidate has officially launched a 2028 campaign, and the primaries are more than a year away, leaving room for new contenders and shifts in voter opinion.