US midterms: 47.9 million early votes already cast, topping the 2022 total

Record early turnout

Election Lab at the University of Florida has counted 47,922,669 early ballots nationwide. That is above the 45.9 million cast in the 2022 midterm elections, the previous high for early voting. Federal data puts 226 million people on the voter rolls for this cycle. The election itself falls on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, but voters can already cast ballots in advance, so the count is a running total that will keep rising.

2026 (as of 30 October)47.92

2022 midterms45.9

2026 (as of 30 October)

47.92 million votes

2022 midterms

45.9 million votes

Data from the article text

Competitive states lead the rise

The increase is most visible in states considered competitive. In Texas, where Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico hopes to end three decades of Republican dominance, more than 6 million people had already voted by Wednesday, 28 October. In-person early voting there rose by about 50% compared with 2022. In Kansas, where a Republican senator faces difficulties, early ballots cast in the week before 30 October were nearly two-thirds higher than in 2022, according to local authorities. Turnout is also high in North and South Carolina, and participation by Black and Hispanic voters has grown in states that publish voter demographics.

Party breakdown of early voters

In states that record party affiliation, Democrats make up about 44% of early voters, against 31% for Republicans and 25% for independents or supporters of smaller parties.

Democrats44%

Republicans31%

Independents and other parties25%

Democrats

44 %

Republicans

31 %

Independents and other parties

25 %

Data from the article text

Party affiliation on an early ballot does not guarantee a vote for that party's candidate, and tens of millions of Americans are still expected to go to the polls on election day. The early figures therefore cannot be read as the final result.

Two parties face internal tests

According to an Associated Press analysis, the Republican Party's cohesion now rests mostly on Donald Trump himself rather than on a set of principles. Trump has long overturned the three-part conservatism that Ronald Reagan set out, which combined fiscal conservatism focused on small government and free trade with conservative social values. Some Republican candidates have begun to keep their distance from the 80-year-old president. Former Republican senator John E. Sununu, who is again seeking the New Hampshire Senate seat he lost in 2008, has said that a large political vacuum will open once Trump leaves office. The Democratic Party, though its enthusiasm has grown, remains unpopular and is heading into open conflict between its established leadership and stronger progressive forces that demand deep change. Moderates favour gradual reform, while progressives back universal healthcare, free access to health and childcare services, and lower military spending. Several Democrats want to reduce personal costs for insured people and improve the current system, while the left wing wants a universal public health system. Israel and the war in Gaza split the party as well, with progressive voters seeking a tougher stance on Israeli operations while other Democrats worry about rising antisemitism. The candidacy of Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, a sharp critic of Israel and of the party leadership, is seen as a test of whether progressive positions can attract broader electorates. The clash is expected to move quickly to the centre of US politics as new members of Congress arrive in Washington and the 2028 presidential race begins to take shape.