Romania's annual inflation falls to 8.2% in July, first sub-10% reading in a year

Headline drop below 10%

Romania's annual inflation rate fell to 8.16% in July 2026, down from 10.42% in June, according to data published on 12 August by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). It was the first time in 12 months that the rate dropped below the 10% threshold. The monthly consumer price index rose 0.58% compared with June, while year-to-date inflation reached 4.4% (July 2026 versus December 2025). The 12-month average change in consumer prices stood at 9.8%.

The decline was driven primarily by a favourable base effect from the liberalisation of electricity prices a year earlier. Electricity prices rose just 3.39% year-on-year in July, far below the over-50% annual increases recorded in previous months after the removal of the price-capping scheme. The harmonised index of consumer prices rose 0.42% monthly, with an annual rate of 8.2% and a 12-month average of 8.8%.

Services lead the price increases

Services recorded the largest annual price increase at 13.67%, followed by non-food goods at 7.93% and food at 5.03%. Within services, rents surged 42.48% year-on-year, the single largest increase across all categories. Water, sewerage and waste tariffs rose 15.99%, auto repairs 13.85%, hygiene and cosmetics 14.10%, and medical care 12.48%. Road transport increased 12.21% and urban transport 7.47%. Air transport fares were up only 2.3% year-on-year but jumped 18.73% compared with June 2026.

Fuel and food pressures

Among non-food goods, diesel rose 30.7% year-on-year and gasoline 23.15%. Monthly, diesel gained 4.6% while gasoline fell 0.85%. Tobacco and cigarettes rose 8.51% annually, with a 2.5% monthly increase. Detergents were up 9.92%, books and publications 10.82%, and thermal energy 10.7%.

Food prices showed mixed movement. Coffee posted the largest annual increase at 19.47%, followed by eggs at 13.9%, beef at 11.67%, and cow's milk at 11.28%. Spirits such as țuica rose 8.87%, sugar and honey products 8.81%, bread 7.93%, beer 7.88%, and fresh fish 7.54%. Food prices overall edged down 0.29% in July compared with June, though they remained 5% higher than in July 2025. Potatoes fell 13.68% year-on-year and fresh fruit 13.82%, while flour dropped 4.3% and cornmeal 4.92%.

Forecasts and outlook

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) revised its end-2026 inflation forecast upward to 5.5% from a previous 3.9%, and anticipates the rate reaching 2.9% by the end of 2027, according to data presented in May by BNR governor Mugur Isărescu. The Confederation of Employers Concordia estimates the annual rate could fall toward 6% by year-end. The inflation trajectory has been volatile through 2026: the rate stood at 9.9% in March, jumped to 10.7% in April, peaked at 10.9% in May, eased to 10.4% in June, and then fell to 8.16% in July.