Euro area inflation rises to 3.8% in September as trade deficit reaches €16.1 billion

Energy pushes inflation higher

Annual inflation in the euro area and the European Union rose to 3.8% in September 2026, Eurostat said on 16 October, up from 3.2% in August. A year earlier the euro area rate stood at 2.2% and the EU rate at 2.6%. Energy was the main driver, with energy prices up 18.9% from a year earlier in September after a 14.3% rise in August. Energy prices had fallen 0.4% in the same month of 2025, so the energy component has reversed direction over the year. In Portugal, inflation measured by the harmonised index (HICP) was 3.6% in September, unchanged from August and up from 1.9% a year earlier.

Country spread

Romania recorded the highest annual rate in the EU in September at 6.5%, followed by Lithuania at 6.1% and Bulgaria at 5.6%. The lowest rates were in Sweden at 1.0%, Hungary and Denmark at 2.1% each, and the Czech Republic at 2.4%. Compared with August, the annual rate fell in one member state, held steady in three and rose in 23, including Romania, where it moved from 6.3% to 6.5%. The EU ranking is based on the harmonised index. Romania's national statistics institute (INS) separately put its annual consumer price inflation at 6.61% in September, up from 6.17% in August. The same INS data showed services prices up 11.12%, non-food goods up 7.06% and food up 3%.

Euro area trade deficit

The euro area goods trade deficit widened in August 2026 to €16.1 billion, compared with €1.7 billion in August 2025, Eurostat said. Exports of goods from the euro area to the rest of the world reached €227.7 billion, up 9.9% from €207.2 billion a year earlier. Imports from the rest of the world totalled €243.8 billion, a rise of 16.7% from €208.9 billion. Import growth outpaced export growth in both comparisons, which is what widened the gap. For the EU as a whole, the goods deficit with the rest of the world was €25.2 billion in August 2026, against €7.5 billion a year earlier. EU exports to countries outside the bloc were €202.9 billion, up 9.4% from €185.4 billion, while EU imports rose 18.2% to €228.0 billion from €192.9 billion.

Romanian central bank forecast

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) raised its end-2026 inflation forecast for Romania to 6.1% from 5.5%. It now expects inflation to fall to 3.4% by the end of 2027, against 2.9% in its previous projection. The figures were presented in August by BNR governor Mugur Isărescu. Those projections were therefore set before the September readings reported above, which put Romania's harmonised rate at 6.5% and its national CPI rate at 6.61%.