Romania's GDP falls 2% year-on-year in Q2 2026, marking three quarters of stagnation

Q2 2026 figures

Romania's National Institute of Statistics (INS) published its "signal" estimate for the second quarter of 2026 on Friday, 14 August. GDP fell 0.4% versus the same quarter of 2025 on the raw series and 2% on the seasonally adjusted series. In real terms, GDP did not change compared with the first three months of 2026, meaning the economy stagnated quarter on quarter. The decline in the annual rate moderated from 1.2% in Q1 2026 to 0.4% in Q2 2026 on the raw series, but the economy has not returned to growth.

Three quarters without growth

The seasonally adjusted data shows three consecutive quarters in which the economy failed to grow versus the previous quarter. After an advance of 0.9% in Q2 2025, GDP stagnated in Q3 2025, fell 1.9% in Q4 2025, and then recorded variations of -0.1% and 0% in the first two quarters of 2026. On an annual basis, the seasonally adjusted series shows GDP was 1.1% lower in Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025 and 2% lower in Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025.

First half of 2026 on the minus

In the first half of 2026, GDP fell 0.8% compared with the first half of 2025 on the raw series and 1.6% on the seasonally adjusted series. The economy began the year with a 1.2% decline in Q1 on the raw series, and the second-quarter decline moderated to 0.4%.

Revised series

INS recalculated the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series after incorporating Q2 2026 estimates, revising figures previously published on 9 July 2026. Q1 2026 GDP was revised from stagnation to a 0.1% decline versus the previous quarter. Some 2025 data was also revised: Q1 2025 versus Q4 2024 was changed from 99.7% to 99.6%, while Q2 2025 was revised from 100.8% to 100.9%. INS notes that the current figures are an estimate and that final Q2 2026 GDP data will be presented in September.

Central bank assessment

National Bank of Romania Governor Mugur Isărescu said in recent statements that Romania's economy could record zero or even negative growth this year, though he does not anticipate a severe recession. The INS data published on 14 August is consistent with that outlook, showing a contraction that has moderated but not reversed.