Recent polls put PP and Vox above majority before Spain's 29 November vote

The election call and calendar

Spain's general election is scheduled for 29 November 2026, after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dissolved the Cortes several weeks ago. La Razón reports that Sánchez called the vote after parliament defeated the government's housing decrees. Monday 26 October is the deadline for filing candidacies with the Junta Electoral Central. The official campaign opens at midnight on Friday 13 November and runs until midnight between 27 and 28 November. Surveys can be published until 23 November, and Saturday 28 November is the reflection day before polling stations open.

What the latest polls show

The NC Report survey for La Razón, carried out between 22 and 24 October, gives the PP 32.9% and 141 to 143 seats, the PSOE 25.8% and 100 to 102, and Vox 19% and 64 to 66. Taken together, the PP and Vox would reach 51.9% and between 205 and 209 seats, against the 176 needed for an absolute majority. Sigma Dos for El Mundo puts the PP at 30.6% (125 to 131 seats), the PSOE at 26.1% (103 to 109) and Vox at 19.9% (66 to 69). Sociométrica for El Español, published on 12 October, gives the PP 32% and 135 seats, and GAD3 for ABC, published the same day, gives the PP 31.4% and 133 seats. Averaging the polls published in 2026, El Periódico finds the PP at 30.5% and the PSOE at 27.5%, which it converts into 132 and 110 seats.

NC Report (La Razón)32.9%

Sociométrica (El Español)32%

GAD3 (ABC)31.4%

Ateneo del Dato (elDiario.es)31.1%

Sigma Dos (El Mundo)30.6%

NC Report (La Razón)

32.9 %

Sociométrica (El Español)

32 %

GAD3 (ABC)

31.4 %

Ateneo del Dato (elDiario.es)

31.1 %

Sigma Dos (El Mundo)

30.6 %

Data from the article text

Shifts inside the right and the PSOE's bid to recover

The Ateneo del Dato survey for elDiario.es, carried out between 20 and 22 October, gives the PP 31.1% and the PSOE 27.6%. The same survey reports that the gap between the two blocs has narrowed from 14.6 points to 13.8 points. According to laSexta, the survey shows 19.4% of the PP's 2023 voters now choose Vox. NC Report estimates that 13.5% of PP voters from 2023, about 1.10 million people, would switch to Vox, while Vox would keep 88.9% of its own 2023 electorate.

The PSOE is still betting on a comeback. Sánchez, speaking on David Broncano's programme La Revuelta, made his prediction for the vote.

“We are not only going to win, we are going to win with a bigger majority than we have had.”

The CIS and consultant Iván Redondo, who once headed the Government's Presidential Cabinet, think the prime minister will overtake Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Former Andalusian regional president Susana Díaz, who is at odds with Sánchez, said on laSexta Xplica that she wants the PSOE to win whoever leads the list.

“We were practically overwhelmed by negative polls, and at the start of the campaign nobody gave a penny for the PSOE to contest the election.”

Vox, Frente Amplio and the left

Vox stands at roughly 18% to 20% across the surveys cited, and GAD3 gives it 65 seats, four fewer than it was given in the previous September barometer. Frente Amplio, led by Ada Colau, is polling 7.4% and 10 to 12 seats in Sigma Dos's survey. Ateneo del Dato gives Podemos, led by Irene Montero, 2.7%. Frente Amplio and Podemos failed to reach an agreement and, according to elDiario.es, will run together only in Canarias and the Valencian Community. El Confidencial reports that the PSOE and Frente Amplio are negotiating joint lists in provinces with fewer than seven seats, to avoid being penalised by the electoral law.

Issues shaping the campaign

El Confidencial identifies pensions, housing and the so-called ley de nietos as the central axes of the campaign. El Periódico says the PSOE is trying to shift attention to housing and away from the migration crisis in Ceuta. Feijóo won the 2023 election with 33.06% against 31.68% for Sánchez, and according to El Periódico he would still depend on Santiago Abascal's Vox to reach La Moncloa under current polling.