Allianz study: renewables top coal globally, but net zero slips to 2064

Ten years on, the Paris goals are slipping

Ten years after the Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016, the world is not on track for its central goal. The treaty, adopted on 12 December 2015 at the COP21 climate summit in Paris, asks governments to hold warming well below 2C and to pursue 1.5C. Warming has continued since then, and UNEP's calculations show that current climate policy leads to about 2.8C of warming by the end of the century. The European Commission is already aligning its future climate precautions with a warming of three degrees.

Allianz sees net zero slipping to 2064

Munich-based Allianz, a DAX group, published the second edition of its Green Transition Tracker, built on energy data from 64 countries that produce most global greenhouse gas emissions. At the current pace, the planet could be climate neutral in 2064, the EU as a whole in 2057 and Germany in 2051, all after the 2050 target. Allianz calls the 1.5C limit practically unreachable. China remains by far the largest emitter, responsible for 30 percent of global emissions, followed by the United States at 11 percent.

China30%

United States11%

China

30 %

United States

11 %

Data from the article text

Luxembourg ranks first for progress in cutting emissions, Switzerland eighth, Germany twelfth and Austria 19th. The EU still leads on CO2 reductions, but its pace has slowed, and Germany is not moving fast enough to reach neutrality by 2050.

Renewables overtake coal, but cuts remain slow

In 2025 renewables produced 33.5 percent of global electricity, slightly ahead of coal at 33.2 percent, the first time renewables have topped coal in the tracker's figures.

Renewables33.5%

Coal33.2%

Renewables

33.5 %

Coal

33.2 %

Data from the article text

Allianz attributes the shift more to economics than to climate policy, pointing to higher oil and gas prices caused by the war involving Iran, which have cut fossil fuel consumption. Of the 64 countries tracked, 56 have further reduced their emissions. Many countries have never treated climate protection as a political priority, and the United States under Donald Trump has backed away from its climate targets. Allianz nonetheless describes the pace as too slow to reach neutrality on time.

Scientists see progress but warn against resignation

Felix Wertli, head of the Swiss delegation at the climate conference, recalled that the world was heading for four degrees of warming a little over a decade ago.

“Back then the world was still heading for four degrees of warming. The agreement has therefore measurably achieved something.”

Patrick Hofstetter of WWF Switzerland argues that the world would look different without Paris, because poorer countries committed to climate protection only through the deal. He also points to the Science Based Targets initiative, under which 14,000 companies have set emissions goals. Hofstetter notes that the poorer countries, along with China, India and Saudi Arabia, which joined then, now account for more than half of global greenhouse gas emissions. Anthony Patt, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich, sees the same progress but says the world is still off course, arguing that a turnaround needs a fast exit from oil and gas.

Heat deaths and the cost of delay

Robert Koch Institute estimates put heat-related deaths in Germany at about 16,000 up to calendar week 36 of 2026. The World Health Organization considers many of these deaths avoidable and estimates that concrete measures could prevent about 1.6 million deaths a year. Those measures include heat warning systems, a resilient water supply and a switch to clean energy. Nabu climate expert Sebastian Bock warns against accepting a warmer planet.

“Three degrees must not become the new normal.”

Bock says that even if societies must prepare for such warming, they should not resign themselves to it, since each tenth of a degree avoided means less heat, drought and flooding. Johan Rockström, the climate researcher, also sees an urgent need to act.

What Paris does and does not do

Under the agreement each government sets its own national targets, known as nationally determined contributions, which must be updated every five years. A Global Stocktake assesses collective progress on the same cycle, and the deal also covers reporting, climate finance and support for developing countries. Compliance is not enforced, with transparency and international pressure serving as the main levers instead. The United States has joined and left twice: the first withdrawal took effect in November 2020, President Joe Biden rejoined in February 2021, and the country left again in January 2026, twelve months after Trump ordered a second exit.