UN says current climate pledges cut emissions just 6% by 2035, far short of 60% needed

A gap of about a tenth

The UN Climate Change secretariat published a synthesis on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, analysing the national climate plans of 154 parties to the Paris Agreement. Those plans, submitted between January 2024 and August 2026, would cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 6% by 2035 compared with 2019 levels, with a range of 0 to 12%. Scientists say a reduction of roughly 60% from 2019 by 2035 is needed to keep warming to 1.5C, so the projected cut is about a tenth of that goal. The synthesis covers 127 documents, with the European Union filing one submission for its 27 member states, and represents roughly 70% to 71% of global emissions.

Full delivery still falls short

Even if countries fully implemented their plans and met their conditional targets, the cut would reach only 9%, with a range of -6 to -12%. The UN estimated a 10% cut by 2035 in its report last year, but that figure came before many submissions had arrived, so the UN had to model the missing pledges. That earlier estimate also predated the withdrawal of the United States. Under President Donald Trump, the country has left the Paris Agreement for a second time, and its policies lean heavily toward fossil fuels.

Last year's UN estimate10%

Projected with current NDCs6%

Current NDCs with conditional targets9%

Needed for 1.5C (IPCC)60%

Last year's UN estimate

10 %

Projected with current NDCs

6 %

Current NDCs with conditional targets

9 %

Needed for 1.5C (IPCC)

60 %

Data from the article text

Science and the wider picture

The IPCC's 2023 report calls for cuts of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 against 2019 levels to limit warming to 1.5C by the end of the century, and about 37% by 2035 for pathways below 2C. The world has already warmed roughly 1.4C above pre-industrial times, and crossing 1.5C is expected within a matter of years. A UN Environment Programme report published in October found that current national commitments put the planet on course for 2.6C of warming this century. The UN Environment Programme identifies a route back to 1.5C by the end of the century that requires emissions to fall 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.

Finance and the road to COP31

The UN also found that climate finance is growing but still falls far short of what is required. Global climate finance flows averaged $1.9 trillion a year in 2023 and 2024, a 32% increase on the 2021 and 2022 averages. In a statement, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the COP31 meeting could help close some of the key gaps.

“With its focus on practical measures to support greater implementation, the COP31 meeting in Turkey can help address some of the key gaps.”

COP31 runs from 9 to 20 November in Antalya, Turkey. Stiell also said that nations remain committed, yet the figures show collective progress is still clearly insufficient.