Putin says Ukraine will eventually lose western lands that belonged to Poland, Hungary and Romania

Vladimir Putin used a Sunday meeting with Russian Navy personnel to predict that Ukraine will eventually lose its western territories, which he claimed historically belong to Poland, Hungary and Romania. The remarks, published by Russian state agency TASS and several Telegram channels, offered no mechanism for how such a transfer would occur.

Putin's prediction

Putin said he was convinced that Ukraine would lose the western lands "sooner or later." He placed the timeline anywhere from one year to 15 years, insisting that "historically everything will return to its place." He did not explain under what conditions Ukraine might forfeit the territories, nor did he address the fact that they have been part of Ukraine since the Soviet period.

I am convinced, by the way, that sooner or later Ukraine will lose these western territories. And what belonged to Poland, Hungary and Romania will return, sooner or later, maybe not tomorrow, not the day after tomorrow, maybe in a year or two, in ten or 15 years, but historically everything will return to its place.

Historical revisionism

Putin repeated the claim that western Ukraine was a "gift" from Joseph Stalin, and added that Lenin gave the Donbas region to Ukraine rather than Russia. He argued that the left bank of the Dnieper River had always been considered part of Russia, and that Russia must now "bring everything back to a normal historical course." He also insisted that Russia had committed "absolutely no aggression" and was forced to launch its military operation to end hostilities begun by the West and the Kyiv regime.

Russia as guarantor

The Russian president described his country as the sole guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity, a statement at odds with Moscow's 2014 annexation of Crimea and its 2022 claims over four additional Ukrainian regions. He accused Kyiv of declaring Russia an enemy and refusing to treat ethnic Russians as a "titular nation" in Ukraine, calling that stance "total absurdity and stupidity."

There was a single guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity, namely Russia. But they considered it necessary, possible and advantageous for them to declare Russia an enemy, and not to consider Russians a titular nation in Ukraine, which is total absurdity and stupidity.

Putin also attacked Ukraine's leadership, saying its leaders had "clashed and quarreled among themselves like spiders in a jar," dividing money stolen from the Ukrainian people or from Western sponsors.

Broken commitments

The speech ignored Russia's own diplomatic pledges. Under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom reaffirmed their commitment to respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and existing borders. Russia again recognized those borders in the 1997 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership, which explicitly confirmed the inviolability of the common frontier and ruled out the use of force.

Territories in question

The territories Putin alluded to that once belonged to Romania are northern Bukovina, the Hertsa region and southern Bessarabia (Bugeac), all currently part of Ukraine. The Soviet Union forced Romania to cede them in June 1940 under an ultimatum backed by the threat of military intervention, after which the Red Army occupied the areas and divided them between the Moldavian and Ukrainian Soviet republics.