ISW challenges Putin territorial claims as drone operations target Russian positions

Disputed claims at the Valdai Forum

At the Valdai Discussion Forum in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian forces captured 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory during September 2026. Putin asserted that this monthly total represented two and a half times the territorial gains achieved in previous months. He also projected that Russian forces would complete the capture of Ukraine's Donbas region in less than one and a half years, stating that about 11 percent of the territory remains under Ukrainian control. He questioned the rationale behind Ukraine's defense, arguing that holding these positions costs unnecessary lives.

If the loss of these territories is inevitable, does it make sense to hold on to them and sacrifice people, their security and their lives for it?

ISW battlefield assessments and net losses

Frontline data published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) contradicts the Kremlin's territorial claims. The Washington-based think tank recorded a net loss of 80.81 square kilometers for Russian forces during September 2026. When temporary Russian infiltrations without established control are excluded, the net territorial reduction totaled 175 square kilometers. The ISW assessed Putin's statements as cognitive warfare intended to create a fictional battlefield reality and exhaust Western support. The institute observed that Russian reporting structures may feed unverified reports to leadership, while Ukrainian forces recently retook dozens of square kilometers near Lyman and held Russian forces more than a dozen kilometers from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

Frontline drone warfare and deep strikes

Tactical unmanned systems have become central to daily combat operations across active frontline sectors. Robert Browdi, the founder of the Magyar's Birds drone unit and head of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems unit, stated that drones now hit more than 85 percent of enemy targets. Browdi, a former grain trader who entered the territorial defense forces in 2022, coordinates operations that include deep strikes up to 3,000 kilometers behind the border. His command assigns 95 percent of unmanned forces to direct frontline combat and five percent to long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure, including an oil refinery in Moscow. He explained that long-range strikes aim to shift the burden of the war directly onto Russian territory.

Our operations in the hinterland have destroyed the idea that Russia has a safe rear area across its entire European territory.

Rhetoric on Kaliningrad and European security

In addition to territorial claims, Putin used the Valdai Forum to deliver warnings regarding the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad. He stated that any assault on Kaliningrad would place the use of all Russian weapons systems on the agenda. These comments followed earlier warnings issued by Russian diplomatic missions in Brussels and Dublin, coming shortly after a meeting between German politician Johann Wadephul and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Security expert Nico Lange characterized the Kaliningrad threats as an expression of underlying weakness following unproductive diplomatic discussions. Lange analyzed the potential security consequences of this stance for the German Bundeswehr brigade stationed in Lithuania near the Suwalki gap.