US intelligence warns Russia could attack a NATO member within weeks to test alliance resolve

US intelligence assessment shifts

US intelligence agencies now assess that President Vladimir Putin could order a limited attack against a NATO member state to test the alliance's resolve, according to reports by the Wall Street Journal and CNN published on 6 August, citing US officials and intelligence reports. The possible time frame runs from this autumn to 2029. Scenarios range from cyberattacks to a small-scale land incursion, including the deployment of soldiers in unmarked uniforms to seize territory, a hybrid tactic the Kremlin has used before. The probability of a land incursion on NATO's eastern flank is assessed as low but increasing with time, and any such attack would trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty.

The assessment marks a shift from the previous US position that Putin would not provoke a NATO country while still fighting in Ukraine. US officials said the evaluation changed earlier this year as Putin found himself under increasing pressure in Ukraine and domestically to secure a victory. Ukrainian drones are inflicting growing damage on both the Russian military and oil industry, while Putin's forces achieve diminishing gains on the front line at high casualty cost. Analysts cited in the Wall Street Journal report suggest Putin may seek to open a new front rather than risk being remembered as the leader who lost Ukraine.

Likely targets and recent incidents

CNN reported that any attack would most likely target the Baltic states or Poland. Last month, The Telegraph reported that European and US intelligence had detected Russian considerations for an armed provocation on Polish soil, missile or drone attacks against critical infrastructure, or false flag attacks seeking to blame Ukraine. On Thursday, Lithuanian defence minister Robertas Kaunas warned that Moscow was planning to use Ukrainian-made drones to attack the Baltics in a false flag operation designed to divide Europe and weaken support for Ukraine.

Recent weeks have seen a series of incidents on NATO territory. A Russian missile landed in Poland last week. On Tuesday, an explosive drone was found at Leipzig/Halle airport in Germany, believed to have targeted a Ukrainian jet carrying weapons. Last month, the Russian warship Neustrashimy conducted a live-fire exercise in the English Channel near Plymouth. UK defence secretary Wes Streeting said reported Russian provocations against the UK were just the tip of the iceberg.

“Incidents like the shooting in the Channel are performative, irresponsible and designed to provoke. It does at least provide the British with a visible manifestation of the provocations we see from Russia every day.”

Munitions concerns and official responses

The Wall Street Journal reporting noted that the US military faces a shortage of certain critical munitions needed for a potential conflict with Russia or China, including Precision Strike Missiles, ATACMS, short-range Stinger surface-to-air missiles, and Patriot air defence systems. Reserves have been depleted by shipments to Ukraine following the Russian invasion and by the US conflict with Iran. Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell and White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated that the US military has sufficient ammunition.

Heather Conley, a senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, framed the strategic stakes of a possible Russian incursion.

“The big question is how the United States would respond in that case. It has always been an objective [of Russia] to call into question the credibility of NATO and distance the United States from its allies.”

Zelensky warns of mobilization

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with Ukrainian broadcasters that Putin was prepared to escalate his war further. Zelensky warned that a possible new mass mobilization could be used to pressure Europe as well. After a covert call-up of hundreds of thousands of Russians to military service, those forces could be used not only for the war in Ukraine but potentially for broader pressure on the continent.