PS leader José Luís Carneiro rules out central bloc with PSD, asks for reciprocity

Central bloc ruled out at Estoril

On Friday, 30 October, José Luís Carneiro, secretary-general of the Socialist Party (PS), was asked at the Estoril Conferences in Cascais whether a central bloc with the Social Democratic Party (PSD) could stop a government led by Chega from taking office. He pointed to an interview he had given to TSF, where he had already answered the question, and then stressed the need for a clear choice between the two main parties. Pressed by reporters, he turned to the stability the PS had provided by enabling the 2027 State Budget (OE2027) and so avoiding a crisis.

“It is important for democracy that there is a clear alternative between the two main Portuguese democratic parties, the PS and the PSD.”

The remarks matched the position he set out in a joint interview with TSF and the Jornal de Notícias, published that morning. There he said a central bloc is not desirable, a view he attributed to several people with experience of the political system. He described the PS as a solid and trustworthy alternative for governing the country. The full interview is due to be published on Sunday, 1 November.

Reciprocity and the budget record

Carneiro wants the PSD to return the favour if the PS wins. He said that if the PS is the most voted party and the AD finishes second or third, as studies have been suggesting, the PSD should back a PS government and let it govern. Without a majority, he would look for support from the democratic parties on policy choices. He recalled that the PS has already enabled three budgets proposed by Luís Montenegro and expects the PSD to act the same way in the next political cycle. On the 2027 budget, he said the party's abstention reflected awareness that difficulties would grow. The PS, he added, would oppose what it disagrees with and put forward its own alternative proposals.

Party leaders send different signals

Carlos César, the PS president, spoke in Ovar in the week of 26 October. He called dialogue between the central parties of democracy essential and guaranteed, and said he was not referring to government coalitions of a central bloc.

“But let it be clear, I am not referring to government coalitions of a central bloc.”

In his account, such coalitions would only be justified as a last resort after a far-right victory. Democratic parties would still owe each other a reciprocal duty to secure governability outside the far right. Expresso reports that two senior PS figures and a former party leader close to Carneiro are preparing members and voters for a possible alliance with the PSD after the next election, a repeat of the central bloc that governed the country from 1983 to 1985. According to the paper, that scenario applies only if Chega wins the next elections. The paper notes that César's remarks came days after those of Ferro Rodrigues and Augusto Santos Silva, and that Carneiro has not said this himself, though others are doing so for him.

Chega at the centre of the calculation

No election is in sight yet, TSF noted, but the arithmetic is already under way and it places Chega in the equation. The question put to Carneiro at Estoril and the argument described inside the PS share one aim: keeping Chega out of government. Expresso sums up that argument as the single reason for the preparations. Carneiro's own position, set out in the interview, is that the PS would present itself as a solid alternative rather than as a partner in a central bloc. The debate therefore centres on what the PS would accept after a vote that has not yet been called.