Polls give PP a 4.4-point lead before Spain's 29 November vote after Urda crash

Poll picture after the Urda crash

The train collision at Urda, in Toledo province, which killed 69 people on 28 October, has reshaped the run-up to Spain's general election on 29 November. El Periódico's average of the polls published in 2026 gives the People's Party (PP) 31% and the Socialist Party (PSOE) 26.6%, a gap of 4.4 points. In the past seven days the PP gained half a point and the PSOE lost nine tenths of one. Compared with the 2023 vote, the same outlet says Feijóo would lose two points and Sánchez five. Converted into seats, that average gives the PP 132 and the PSOE 108, while the PP and Vox together come close to 200 seats in Congress.

PP31%

PSOE26.6%

PP

31 %

PSOE

26.6 %

Data from the article text

The crash and the pressure on the government

The PSOE now faces pressure from its own partners and from the whole right, all demanding the resignation of minister Óscar Puente after the second accident on the high-speed network in under a year. PP sources say the crash has changed a campaign the party had planned as a head-on clash with Sánchez, and that it will now run on management and sobriety. Vox has moved out of stagnation since the accident, so Feijóo would still depend on Santiago Abascal to reach the Moncloa. PP sources also say Puente's name will weigh on voters' minds, even though it appears on the ballot only in Valladolid.

Campaign tone and the Vox question

Feijóo told the PP's national executive committee on Monday, 2 November, that many shops had boarded up their windows out of fear of the disturbances in Barcelona and Bilbao the week before. He linked that fear to calls by a movement called Blocus for sabotage and looting around Halloween, and to police operations that detained about ten people in Valencia, Bilbao, Málaga and Tenerife. He said some on the left had gone as far as saying the streets should be set alight because there would be no peace, and he rejected that view.

“There will be peace because it is what the vast majority wants.”

In an interview on Telecinco, he conceded that some disillusioned voters had moved to Vox but insisted the PP was winning abstainers, new voters and voters from the social democratic tradition.

“I honestly believe the result at the ballot box will be better, but there are still many days left.”

He also defended the Senate arrangement with Vox, under which the PP will not run in six provinces and Vox will not run in six others, arguing that the two are distinct parties.

The Socialists, the Senate pact and PP internal polling

Feijóo said the PSOE had dissolved into a broad leftist front through its Senate pact with Frente Amplio, which he said brings together 18 other parties and runs in almost 50 provinces. He accused the Socialists of trying to absorb the radical and pro-independence left, Ada Colau included. PP sources at Génova say their internal polls show more than 620,000 voters who backed the PSOE in 2023 now leaning toward Feijóo. The share of those voters choosing him rose from 5.9% to 7.8% between an earlier survey and one run from 5 to 19 October, and the party puts it at about 8%. Those sources expect the drift to grow once the accident shows up in their tracking polls, which they have not yet analysed.

Campaign calendar

The official campaign opens at 00.00 on Friday, 13 November and runs for fifteen days until midnight on Friday, 27 November. Saturday, 28 November is a day of reflection, and on Sunday, 29 November voters will choose their representatives in Congress and the Senate. The PP resumed pre-campaign activity on Monday after three days of mourning. Feijóo is not due at a rally until Saturday, 7 November, in Valladolid.

Territorial projections

El Mundo's latest Sigma Dos poll gives the PP a chance to finish first on its own in up to 36 provinces, up from 28 a week earlier. The poll counts 22 of those as secured, nine as very likely and five as still contested. The PSOE, by contrast, has a near-certain win only in Barcelona and Tarragona and could extend that to Girona, while Lérida is no longer within its reach. In Madrid, a Sigma Dos poll dated 19 October put the PP first with 15 seats, the PSOE and Vox level on 9 each, and Frente Amplio on 4. That Madrid poll was carried out before the Urda accident.

PP15

PSOE9

Vox9

Frente Amplio4

PP

15 seats

PSOE

9 seats

Vox

9 seats

Frente Amplio

4 seats

Data from the article text