Portugal's regulator proposes 1.5% electricity tariff rise for regulated customers in January 2027

The proposal

On Thursday, 15 October 2026, Portugal's Entidade Reguladora dos Serviços Energéticos (ERSE) proposed an average increase of 1.5% in low-voltage normal electricity tariffs on the regulated market for mainland Portugal, measured between December 2026 and January 2027. The change would reach the roughly 780,000 customers who remain on the regulated market, a count the regulator gave for the end of June. The proposal still needs an opinion from the Tariff Council, and the regulator has until 15 December to publish the final tariffs and prices. Measured against the average price of 2026, the annual change for 2027 rises to 3.7%, once the October adjustment is included.

Why prices are moving

The regulator linked the proposal to wholesale electricity prices, which it said reflect the effects of the Middle East conflict on commodity prices through the price of natural gas. Average wholesale prices in Portugal stand at 78.8 euros per megawatt hour, compared with 66.2 euros per megawatt hour last year. Earlier, on 1 October, the regulator raised regulated tariffs by about 2.7%, a change that applied only to the energy component. Observador described the proposed January rise as the second increase in three months. Some renewable contracts with guaranteed remuneration cost less when wholesale prices are high, and that gap offsets part of the rise, although those contracts are nearing the end of their term. The tariffs also include containment measures worth up to 303 million euros, funded by selling CO2 allowances to polluting companies, the petroleum tax and an extraordinary contribution on energy companies.

What it means for bills

ERSE's examples cover two household profiles. A couple without children, with 3.45 kVA of contracted power and 1,900 kWh of annual consumption, would see an average monthly bill of 38.31 euros, 54 cents more than in December 2026. A couple with two children, 6.9 kVA and 5,000 kWh a year, would pay 99.01 euros a month, an increase of 1.28 euros. Those bill figures include taxes and fees. The regulator noted that network access tariffs for normal low voltage fall 13.7%, yet that cut may not translate into a lower final bill because energy and retail components also apply. The 33.8% discount on the social electricity tariff stays in place for eligible consumers in both the regulated and liberalised markets.

Free market and network charges

Access tariffs apply to all consumers, including the 5.85 million customers on the liberalised market at the end of June, where energy prices vary by supplier. The largest suppliers have kept their prices frozen until the end of 2026, but the companies have warned that this could change in 2027. Other network tariff changes between December 2026 and January 2027 are a 1.3% fall for very high voltage, 8.1% for high voltage, 13.5% for medium voltage and 13.2% for special low voltage. The chart shows these changes as the regulator wrote them, with negative values.

What happens next

The proposal goes to the Tariff Council for an opinion before ERSE finalises the tariffs, a step due by 15 December. The new tariffs are scheduled to apply from 1 January 2027. The sequence so far runs from the 2.7% energy adjustment on 1 October to the proposal published on 15 October, and then to the deadline and start date. The figures remain a proposal until the regulator publishes the final tariffs.