Portugal fuel prices expected to fall around 10 cents a litre from Monday, 9 November

Forecast cut from Monday

Fuel prices in Portugal are expected to fall from Monday, 9 November, by roughly 10 cents a litre. The Automóvel Club de Portugal (ACP), as reported by Diário de Notícias, estimates a cut of 11 cents for diesel and 12.5 cents for petrol on that day. Provisional sector figures passed to SIC and Notícias ao Minuto point to smaller reductions of 9 cents for diesel and 11.5 cents for petrol at the start of the week. SAPO gives wider ranges, from 11.5 to 12.5 cents for petrol and from 9 to 12.5 cents for diesel. A separate SIC calculation, based on Thursday's market close, gives 12.5 cents for petrol but only 1.5 cents for diesel. All of these estimates exclude trading on Friday, 6 November, so the concrete figures will only be known after that session.

Expected average pump prices

Diesel averaged 2.205 euros a litre on Friday, 6 November, according to data from the Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia (DGEG) cited by Diário de Notícias, while petrol stood at about 2 euros. If the ACP forecast holds, diesel would average 2.095 euros and petrol 1.876 euros from Monday. Observador reports that petrol, currently just above 2 euros, would dip below that mark, while diesel would stay above 2 euros. These figures are national averages, and the price at each station will vary by location. The DGEG price comparator lets motorists find the cheapest station in a given locality, and SIC advises drivers to wait before filling up if they can.

Diesel, Friday 6 November2.205

Diesel, projected 9 November2.095

Petrol, projected 9 November1.876

Diesel, Friday 6 November

2.205 euros per litre

Diesel, projected 9 November

2.095 euros per litre

Petrol, projected 9 November

1.876 euros per litre

Data from the article text

Oil and the euro drive the fall

Brent crude lost more than 15% over the week and traded below 100 dollars a barrel, according to SIC. SAPO puts Brent near 98 dollars after a rebound of about 4% in one session, with the weekly loss still above 15%. Observador says oil fell more than 10%, and attributes part of the move to a release of strategic reserves under an agreement between several European countries and the International Energy Agency. Observador describes the drop in refined product quotations as sudden and says more product is now available on the market. Operators that had been storing fuel in expectation of higher sale prices are also reported to be releasing stock, anticipating a possible sharper fall in international prices. SIC adds that a stronger euro against the dollar lowers costs, since crude is traded in dollars. Observador also links the drop to the outcome of the US elections, which it describes as a defeat for Trump.

Tax adjustment could narrow the cut

Each time pump prices fall, the government recovers part of the discount it granted on the oil products tax (ISP), and Observador says that recovery could approach 2 cents a litre in the week starting 9 November. SIC expects the government to change the value of the ISP discount, so the decrease may be slightly smaller than the forecasts. Observador frames the expected fall as one of the sharpest since the fuel crisis began in March 2026. Observador also notes that the forecasts exclude any Friday market movements that could change the outlook, and Diário de Notícias makes the same caveat. Retail prices are therefore still provisional until the final market figures are in.