Polish fuel prices near 9 złoty as Saudi pipeline attack tightens European diesel supply

Global disruptions and crude market surge

Global crude and fuel benchmarks recorded sharp gains following attacks in Saudi Arabia on 10 September 2026. The strikes, occurring in the regions of Riyadh and Medina, targeted the strategic East-West pipeline. The Saudi Ministry of Energy subsequently announced a temporary halt to operations along the pipeline, which possesses a capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day and serves as a primary alternative route bypassing the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Following the disruption, Brent crude surpassed $107 per barrel on Monday afternoon, up from below $100 per barrel the previous week.

Forecasts for Polish filling stations

Domestic fuel retailers in Poland are preparing for higher prices at the pump as wholesale increases filter through the supply chain. Market analysis office Reflex projects average retail diesel prices to reach 8.95 PLN per litre, representing a 19-grosz increase over the prior week. Analysis from e-petrol anticipates diesel prices in a range between 8.94 PLN and 9.07 PLN per litre. During the previous week, diesel averaged 8.76 PLN per litre, edging past the prior peak of 8.75 PLN recorded on 26 March. Urszula Cieślak, an analyst at Reflex, noted that currency movements are adding to upward price pressure.

The outlook is not good and these psychological barriers, 8 złoty per litre for petrol and 9 złoty per litre for diesel, will probably be broken this week.

Petrol prices remain closer to stability compared to diesel. Lead-free 95-octane petrol (Pb95) averaged 7.89 PLN per litre, compared to its maximum recorded level of 7.97 PLN in June 2022. Forecasts from e-petrol place Pb95 between 7.86 PLN and 7.99 PLN per litre for the week. In the wholesale market over the previous week, Pb95 prices dropped by 20 groszy per litre while diesel wholesale prices rose by 25 groszy per litre.

Refining bottlenecks across Europe

The divergence between petrol and diesel reflects structural refining deficits across the European continent. Europe remains reliant on imports for its diesel consumption, a vulnerability worsened by offline processing capacity in the Middle East and prohibitions on Russian diesel exports. On the European market, wholesale diesel prices reached above $1,500 per tonne, topping the 2022 peak of $1,422.50 per tonne before easing slightly to $1,422 per tonne.

Adam Sikorski, chief executive officer of fuel importer and distributor Unimot, pointed to elevated refining margins as a central driver of domestic cost pressures.

Economics is unforgiving. The published wholesale price of diesel on Friday was already 8.95 złoty per litre with VAT. At this wholesale price level, a retail price above 9 złoty per litre may appear at subsequent stations.

Supply risks and market responses

Industry representatives differ on whether retail fuel will reach 10 PLN per litre. Sikorski warned that reaching 10 PLN is not the most pessimistic scenario, identifying potential physical fuel shortages as a more severe risk. In contrast, Cieślak suggested that government relief measures would likely intervene before retail prices reach 10 PLN per litre, citing potential consumer and political pressure alongside higher state revenue generated by value-added tax.

Polish refiner Orlen stated that it maintains a diversified and flexible portfolio of suppliers and internal resources to respond to global market fluctuations. Sikorski countered that international supply reductions still impact regional pricing, noting that other buyers displaced from Saudi pipeline supplies must seek alternative volumes. Filling station operators maintained motorway prices in line with standard stations over the weekend, attempting to preserve volumes and non-fuel sales rather than maximizing fuel retail margins.