European Union
European democracies and populism
Updated 10h ago
2/5
Populist and anti-liberal political forces are gaining institutional ground within the European Union, testing and at times reshaping the boundaries of liberal democracy through electoral victories, legal challenges, and conflicts with EU frameworks.
The collapse of Romania's governing coalition introduces new political instability in an EU member state, potentially shifting its pro-European alignment.
State of play
Marine Le Pen's 2027 presidential campaign proceeds under a confirmed embezzlement conviction, framing a central test for liberal-democratic norms in a major EU founding state. Her immediate appeal to the Cour de Cassation suspends the sentence, including a one-year detention order under electronic monitoring, allowing her to campaign unimpeded. Recent national polls continue to show her and the National Rally as frontrunners, solidifying their position as the largest force in the French parliament.
Germany's AfD Rise
In Germany, the far-right AfD reelected its co-leaders and projects strength for upcoming regional elections, aiming to enter state coalitions despite mainstream party rejections. The party's recent national convention in Erfurt triggered mass counter-protests, highlighting societal polarization. The AfD is now positioned to potentially form a government in Saxony-Anhalt and dominate eastern regional contests, challenging centrist parties to maintain a cordon sanitaire.
EU Rule of Law
In Hungary, the new Tisza government's judicial and anti-corruption reform agenda remains under intense EU scrutiny, with the unfreezing of funds contingent on satisfying the Commission's rule-of-law conditions. The European Commission's latest annual report renewed critiques of Hungary's rule of law, while also acknowledging some progress. Incoming Prime Minister Péter Magyar is seeking close alignment with Poland to renegotiate Budapest's relationship with the EU, drawing on Poland's experience in reversing democratic backsliding. The Court of Justice of the European Union has rejected Hungary's challenge to the Article 7 procedure, keeping open the possibility of sanctions. The Patriots for Europe bloc continues as the third-largest group in the European Parliament, complicating legislative coalitions.
Poland's Rule of Law
In a development that recalibrates the EU's enforcement posture, the European Commission announced its intention to propose ending the Article 7 procedure against Poland. This decision reflects changes under the current pro-EU government, which has sought to reverse earlier illiberal reforms and normalize relations with Brussels. However, the Commission's latest annual report still flags persistent "democratic deficiencies" in Poland, indicating that rebuilding liberal-democratic norms is a gradual process requiring further monitoring and reforms.
Romania's Political Instability
Romania faces political instability following the collapse of its centrist governing coalition in late June. President Nicușor Dan is now seeking a new majority to stabilize the country, with potential implications for Romania's pro-European stance and support for Ukraine, as coalition realignments could empower nationalist or Eurosceptic forces.
Key events
Full chronicle156
This week
- Romania's centrist governing coalition collapsed in late June.
- President Dan seeks a new majority after coalition disintegration.