European democracies and populism
Since 26 May
Populist and anti-liberal political forces are gaining institutional ground within the European Union, testing and at times reshaping the boundaries of liberal democracy through electoral victories, legal challenges, and conflicts with EU frameworks.
France's 2027 Contest
Le Pen leads 2027 polls and on 10 October proposed a constitutional referendum targeting "Islamist ideology," including a public veil ban and "national preference" provisions. She backs cutting France's EU contribution. Both she and Mélenchon outpoll the centre-left, where MEP Glucksmann led a 9 October primary drawing over 140,000 voters.
Germany's Firewall Strain
Reuters reported on 10 October that at least four mainstream lawmakers in Saxony-Anhalt appear to have defied party instructions by voting for AfD speaker Tobias Rausch. AfD-BSW coalition talks there have made little progress. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the Greens approved negotiations with the SPD and Left Party on 10 October. Merz's coalition faces record-low approval.
Spain, Poland, Romania, EU Budget
Two 9 October polls project PP and Vox above 176 seats for Spain's 29 November election, with Vox possibly pivotal in coalition talks. Miriam González Durántez launched the centrist Democracy21 on 10 October. The Venice Commission adopted an opinion on the Polish president's Constitutional Tribunal oath powers, text due next week. Romania's AUR nears 40%.
A revised EU budget proposal discussed on 10 October would be about 30% larger than the current budget but well below the Commission's plan; Germany and other fiscally conservative governments oppose a bigger increase.
Next
Venice Commission text on Polish president's tribunal oath powers due (13 or 14 Oct)
pollar.newsEuropean Council meeting begins
EU presents its enlargement policy review
First session of the new Berlin parliament
Who’s who
Marine Le Pen, National Rally leader
Leads 2027 polls, proposes a constitutional referendum on "Islamist ideology" and national preference, and backs EU contribution cuts above €11 billion from 2027.
George Simion, AUR leader
Presses President Dan to end the government deadlock while AUR polls near 40%.
Venice Commission, Council of Europe advisory body
Timeline
Le Pen proposes constitutional referendum on "Islamist ideology" and national preference
Le Monde reported on 10 October that Marine Le Pen proposed a constitutional referendum targeting what she calls "Islamist ideology," including a public veil ban and incorporation of "national preference" into the constitution. The proposals would test executive-led constitutional change and sharpen her 2027 campaign's focus on immigration and identity.
Romania's AUR approaches 40% in polling as Simion presses Dan to end deadlock
Polling reported on 10 October shows Romania's AUR approaching 40% as leader Simion presses President Dan to end the government deadlock. The figure positions the far-right party to benefit if the stalemate triggers a snap election.
Venice Commission adopts opinion on Polish president's Constitutional Tribunal oath powers
The Council of Europe's Venice Commission adopted an opinion on 9 October on the Polish president's powers regarding oaths of Constitutional Tribunal judges, with the text expected publicly on 13 or 14 October. The opinion addresses a core dispute in Poland's rule-of-law standoff over judicial appointments.
Two Spanish polls project PP and Vox above majority threshold
Two polls published on 9 October project the People's Party and Vox together above the 176-seat majority threshold for Spain's 29 November election. The result would bring Vox into central government for the first time since 1975.
Polish committee recommends State Tribunal proceedings against central-bank governor Glapiński
A Polish parliamentary committee voted on 9 October to recommend bringing central-bank governor Adam Glapiński before the State Tribunal over alleged unconstitutional deficit financing in 2020–21 and politicisation of the bank. The motion now goes to the Sejm, which needs an absolute majority with at least half of deputies present.
Le Pen details unilateral EU contribution cuts exceeding €11 billion
Le Monde reported on 8 October that Marine Le Pen confirmed plans to cut France's EU contribution by more than €11 billion from 2027, with annual reductions of €10 to €14 billion during a presidential term. The proposal targets major EU policies and could trigger a confrontation with EU institutions.
Berlin's Left Party opens exploratory coalition talks with SPD and Greens
Berlin's Left Party, SPD and Greens agreed on 8 October to measures addressing antisemitic incidents, enabling exploratory coalition talks after the state election. The Left Party won 25.7% and emerged as the largest force, with the talks excluding AfD despite its national advance.
Romania's PSD conditions PM-designate support on coalition rebuild
Romania's Social Democrats told PM-designate Niculescu on 8 October to seek a majority including Liberals and the ethnic Hungarian party, signalling a possible rebuild of the previous governing alliance. The condition deepens the formation deadlock as snap-election calls grow.
Le Pen reasserts control over National Rally, sidelining protégé ahead of 2027 race
Marine Le Pen pushed aside a political protégé on 8 October, reinforcing her authority over the National Rally after a July court ruling cleared her to stand for the presidency. The move consolidates party discipline before the 2027 campaign.
French parliament opens 2027 budget review, rejects first pension tax proposal
French lawmakers began reviewing the government's 2027 budget on 7 October, rejecting an initial proposal to reduce a pension tax allowance. The minority government's €43 billion savings package faces a difficult parliamentary path as parties position themselves before the presidential election.
Merz schedules coalition stabilization talks after AfD speakership fallout
Chancellor Merz planned talks on 7 October with leaders of his Christian Democratic bloc and the Social Democrats to stabilise the federal coalition, after the AfD speakership vote in Saxony-Anhalt exposed strains in the firewall. The dispute raises pressure on Germany's exclusion of AfD from coalitions at state level.
Commission proposes 15-year probationary period for future EU members with voting-rights suspension
The European Commission proposed on 7 October a 15-year probationary period for future EU members during which voting rights could be suspended after serious breaches of EU values. The proposal addresses enforcement difficulties exposed by the Article 7 deadlock over Hungary, where unanimous action was blocked.
AfD and BSW plan joint state-parliament motion to end German Ukraine military support
AfD and BSW announced on 7 October a joint motion in Saxony-Anhalt's state parliament to end German military support for Ukraine, due for debate the following week. The initiative cannot alter federal foreign policy but marks the first concrete legislative cooperation between the far-right and left-wing populist parties at state level.
Polish poll puts Tusk coalition 11 seats short of Sejm majority as right-wing bloc reaches 240
A United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska puts Koalicja Obywatelska at 30.6% but governing allies below the 5% threshold, leaving Tusk's coalition at 220 seats. Right-wing parties collectively reach 240, underscoring the fragility of Poland's centrist government ahead of the next parliamentary cycle.
AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt parliament speakership with BSW support
AfD lawmaker Tobias Rausch was elected president of the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament on 6 October with BSW support, the first time the far-right party has held such a post in a German state since 1945. BSW ruled out joining an AfD-led coalition.
Le Pen unveils €25 billion spending-cut plan and 2027 shadow budget
Le Pen presented plans on 6 October to reduce government spending by €25 billion annually and publish a 2027 "shadow budget," seeking fiscal credibility as French bonds reel and she leads polls for the April presidential election.
Romania's Dan nominates fourth PM as deadlock persists and early-election conditions met
President Nicușor Dan nominated diplomat Luca Niculescu on 5 October as his fourth prime-ministerial pick, giving him 10 days to form a cabinet. Conditions for dissolving parliament and calling early elections have been met, with polling showing the hard-right AUR would benefit most from a snap vote.
AfD strategy paper proposes possible referendum on Germany's EU membership
An AfD strategy paper seen by Reuters on 5 October proposes seeking a loosened EU "union of sovereign nations" with wider opt-outs, and if that fails, considering a referendum on Germany's EU membership. The proposal requires approval at an AfD convention next year.
Spain's Sánchez calls snap election for 29 November after housing-vote defeat
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called snap parliamentary elections for 29 November on 5 October after his government lost a vote on housing legislation. The vote tests Spain's fragmented party system under pressure from populist right and left forces.
ECR moves to investigate European Left Alliance over EU-values breach
ECR vice-chair Charlie Weimers began collecting signatures on 5 October for a motion asking the EU parties watchdog to investigate the European Left Alliance over alleged breaches of EU values, after France's PM accused La France Insoumise of organising violent school protests. A vote could follow on 19 October.
Euro hits 17-month low as French bond rout deepens fiscal fears
The euro fell to a 17-month low on 5 October as French bond turmoil intensified concerns about the country's debt and political gridlock before the 2027 presidential election. The sell-off links France's fiscal crisis to wider euro-area stability fears.
Bosnia's nationalist parties lead divisive election with EU bid implications
Bosnia and Herzegovina's nationalist parties led a divisive general election, results reported on 5 October showed. The outcome carries implications for Sarajevo's EU accession bid and the reform path required for membership.
Polish prosecutors charge 87 election workers over 2025 presidential runoff vote-swap errors
The District Prosecutor's Office in Siedlce charged 87 precinct commission members with dereliction of duty after votes were mistakenly swapped between candidates in the 2025 presidential runoff. The mass charges place electoral integrity under judicial scrutiny.
Key
AfD negotiates with BSW for first far-right German state government since 1945
AfD opened negotiations with the nationalist-left BSW in Saxony-Anhalt to form Germany's first far-right state government since 1945, after winning 43.7% in September's state election. Both parties back tougher migration policies including large-scale deportations.
Steinmeier warns of "Weimar-style" divisions in reunification speech
President Steinmeier warned on 3 October that disinformation and extremist demagoguery risk reviving "Weimar-style" political divisions, without naming AfD. The speech followed state elections where the far-right party won the largest share in two eastern states.
Latvia's election puts populist parties in coalition kingmaker position
Latvians voted on 3 October in a parliamentary election where populist parties Latvia First and Sovereign Power cleared the threshold. PM Kulbergs's United List led but may need Latvia First as a coalition partner despite leader Šlesers's advocacy of closer trade with Russia.
Romania's president rejects early elections as crisis exit
President Dan rejected early elections on 3 October, saying foreign investors had urged Romania against a vote, while a majority of lawmakers favour elections to end the crisis. Romania has been without a regular government since parliament rejected the cabinet on 30 September.
French 10-year yield hits highest since 2002 as deficit doubts mount
France's 10-year government bond yield reached 4.96% on 2 October, its highest since July 2002, before easing. The premium over German debt widened to 160 basis points as investors questioned whether the 2027 budget would pass amid record debt near 119% of GDP.
S&P affirms Romania at BBB- with negative outlook amid deadlock
S&P affirmed Romania's sovereign rating at BBB- on 2 October, the lowest investment grade, retaining a negative outlook. The agency said its baseline assumes a credible 2027–28 fiscal plan, warning that prolonged uncertainty or snap elections could complicate budget adoption.
Mediapart publishes authenticated Bardella message extracts
Mediapart published on 2 October authenticated extracts of private messages allegedly written by Jordan Bardella as a teenager containing antisemitic remarks. Bardella denied authorship. The publication adds pressure on RN's bid to broaden acceptability before 2027.
Hungary's post-Orbán government opens probe into former prime minister
Hungary's new government launched an investigation on 2 October into Viktor Orbán's alleged role in seizing Ukrainian cash and gold, the Financial Times reported. The probe, dubbed "Operation Cleansing Fire," deepens Tisza's institutional challenge to the former prime minister's political legacy.
Le Pen proposes constitutional "golden rule" for French public finances
Marine Le Pen proposed on 2 October a constitutional "golden rule" requiring France's deficit to stay below levels needed to reduce public debt as a share of GDP. The proposal targets investor concerns about her fiscal credibility ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
EU interior ministers approve "return hubs" rules for deportations outside the bloc
EU interior ministers approved on 2 October rules allowing member states to establish "return hubs" outside the bloc for people legally required to leave. The decision expands deportation options as migration policy becomes central to Europe's populist politics.
Greece proposes temporary EU asylum restrictions, five states open to examining mechanism
Greece proposed wider temporary EU restrictions on asylum applications during large-scale arrivals deemed deliberately engineered, with Germany, Austria, Denmark and Poland open to examining the mechanism. The proposal would strengthen national governments' role in migration response.
France presents €43 billion 2027 savings budget amid no-confidence risk
France's government presented a 2027 budget on 1 October combining €43 billion in savings with tax increases, targeting a deficit cut from 5.4% to 5% of GDP. The plan faces a no-confidence risk in a parliament where the government lacks a majority, with Le Pen demanding spending cuts as a condition for support.
Romania files final EU recovery-fund payment request amid crisis
Romania submitted its final EU recovery-fund payment request on 1 October despite five months without a fully functioning government. The filing keeps Bucharest on track for disbursement even as the political deadlock delays domestic budget approval and complicates EU seven-year budget negotiations.
Merz accuses Russia of backing AfD in speech on 1 October
Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in a 1 October speech that the far-right party is supported by Russia, without providing specific evidence. The accusation escalates the confrontation between Berlin's government and AfD, which has won two state elections and leads national polls while advocating an end to Ukraine aid.
Chega's Ventura urges far-right cooperation beyond Patriots alliance
Chega leader André Ventura called on 1 October for European far-right parties to cooperate beyond the existing Patriots alliance, including with Germany's AfD. Representatives of RN, Vox, Fidesz, and Italy's League attended a gathering in Portugal where Ventura advocated broader coordination.
Hungary's Tisza majority strips immunity from two Fidesz former ministers
Hungary's Tisza-led parliamentary majority voted on 1 October to remove immunity from two Fidesz-aligned former ministers, enabling corruption-related proceedings against officials from Orbán's previous government. Peter Magyar's administration launched the proceedings as part of its challenge to the Fidesz era.
Macron condemns Bardella allegations as "unacceptable," urges RN clarification
French President Emmanuel Macron called allegations of antisemitic comments attributed to Bardella "unacceptable" on 30 September and urged RN to clarify its members' positions. Le Pen said she retains "total confidence" in Bardella, who denies the claims and accuses opponents of destabilising the 2027 campaign.
Romania's PM-designate Mureșan loses confidence vote, deepening political crisis
Romania's prime-minister-designate Siegfried Mureșan lost a confidence vote on 30 September with about 170 of 233 votes required, after two prior formation attempts failed. The far-right AUR, holding roughly one-third of parliament and leading in polls, called for early elections. The deadlock threatens Romania's investment-grade credit rating.
Bardella denounces antisemitism allegations as "total war" against RN
Bardella said on 29 September that allegations concerning antisemitic comments he allegedly made in 2013 form part of a "total war" against RN. The report noted Le Pen leads 2027 first-round polling and is projected to defeat any challenger in the runoff.
Romanian appeals court orders 30 days pre-trial detention for Georgescu
A Romanian appeals court ordered 30 days of pre-trial detention for former presidential candidate Călin Georgescu in a campaign fraud case. The ruling deepens the criminal proceedings against the pro-Russia politician whose 2024 election victory was annulled.
AfD's Siegmund declares candidacy for Saxony-Anhalt minister-president
AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund announced on 29 September he will stand for election as Saxony-Anhalt minister-president in December despite lacking a parliamentary majority. BSW rejects a formal coalition but plans to abstain in the vote; the CDU has declined government talks.
National Rally wins first-ever Senate caucus in French indirect election
RN and allied right-wing candidates won enough seats in France's 27 September indirect Senate election to form a parliamentary caucus for the first time, granting the party procedural powers in the upper chamber ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
Polish Constitutional Tribunal opens disciplinary inquiry against three sitting judges
Constitutional Tribunal President Bogdan Święczkowski launched disciplinary proceedings against judges Magdalena Bentkowska, Dariusz Szostek, and Sławomir Patyra over criminal filings and a refusal to adjudicate. The move deepens the tribunal's internal conflict over the status of Sejm-elected judges.
EU Commission proposes releasing €4.2 billion in frozen Hungarian funds
The European Commission proposed on 23 September releasing €4.2 billion in frozen Hungarian cohesion funds, finding Budapest has addressed corruption and public-procurement breaches. The funds were withheld since 2022 under the rule-of-law conditionality mechanism, making the reversal a test of the EU's financial leverage over democratic-governance concerns.
Polish prosecutors charge Constitutional Tribunal chancellery head over barred judges
Polish prosecutors pressed criminal charges on 23 September against Zofia Hoffmann, head of the Constitutional Tribunal's chancellery, for refusing to admit four Sejm-elected judges and withholding their remuneration. The case escalates Poland's judicial composition dispute at the centre of EU rule-of-law tensions.
BSW rules out formal coalition with AfD in Saxony-Anhalt
BSW parliamentary leader Thomas Schulze stated that while exploratory discussions with AfD in Saxony-Anhalt are constructive, the party will not enter a formal coalition. BSW will, however, support AfD's candidate for state parliament president.
AfD set to win Saxony-Anhalt state parliament presidency, a first for the party
Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on 22 September that AfD is expected to win the presidency of the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament in Magdeburg, the first time the party would hold that office in any German state legislature. The post would give AfD its first legislative leadership role in a German state.
Kremlin welcomes AfD dialogue interest, contrasts with Merz stance
The Kremlin publicly welcomed AfD's interest in dialogue with Russia on 22 September, contrasting it with Chancellor Merz's "confrontational" stance. The statement came as AfD leaders prepare a 2027 meeting with Putin envoy Dmitriev on restoring Russian gas supplies to Germany.
Söder threatens to revisit Berlin federal funding over left coalition plans
Bavarian premier Markus Söder said on 22 September he would seek to reopen Berlin's federal funding agreement if a left-led state government pursued Die Linke's housing expropriation goals. The threat introduces a fiscal dimension to Berlin's coalition formation, pitting the CSU against a prospective Die Linke-SPD-Greens government.
DIICOT detains former presidential candidate Georgescu on campaign fraud allegations
Romania's organised crime directorate DIICOT detained former presidential candidate Călin Georgescu on allegations of campaign fundraising fraud. The pro-Russian politician who led the annulled 2024 first round now faces criminal proceedings alongside Romania's ongoing government formation deadlock.
Merz confirms he will remain Chancellor, rejecting resignation calls after CDU defeats
Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated on 21 September he will not resign after the CDU fell to 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and lost Berlin to Die Linke. CDU officials argue a leadership change would not resolve the party's credibility problems, though internal debate persists.
The Left Party leads in Berlin state election
Die Linke finished first in Berlin with approximately 25-26% of the vote, ahead of the CDU. AfD made gains to become the third-largest party, intensifying coalition formation challenges in the capital.
Key
AfD wins Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election
Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) secured 38.1% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, making it the strongest party. This outcome pushes the CDU below the 5% threshold, marking its first exclusion from the state parliament.
Final MV results: AfD 38.1%, CDU drops out of state parliament below 5% threshold
Final results on 20 September gave AfD 38.1% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the CDU fell to 4.9%, below the 5% threshold and out of the state parliament for the first time. The Left finished first in Berlin. The outcome intensifies pressure on Chancellor Merz even as the cross-party firewall against AfD holds.
Le Pen signals RN will vote against 2027 budget, withdrawing conditional support
Le Pen signalled on 20 September that RN will likely vote against the 2027 budget, after offering conditional support on 16 September. The Socialists also ruled out backing, leaving Lecornu's minority government dependent on fragmented centrist and conservative deputies.
Merz convenes CDU meeting after AfD wins MV exit polls
Chancellor Merz convened a CDU meeting on 20 September after exit polls projected AfD first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania at 37%, ahead of SPD's 35.5%. The meeting assesses CDU strategy after its near-threshold 5.5% result.
Le Pen and Bardella issue joint RN statement criticising Russian interference, questioning Ukraine aid levels
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella issued a joint National Rally statement on 20 September criticising Russian attempts to influence French politics while asserting France can no longer sustain Ukraine aid at previous levels. The dual message sharpens RN's 2027 positioning.
German state elections held in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
Voters cast ballots in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on 20 September in state elections testing Chancellor Merz. In MV, AfD's expectation of first place has faded, though it is still a central contender against SPD premier Manuela Schwesig.
Lecornu outlines €54 billion 2027 budget plan, deferring pension decisions to parliament
French PM Sébastien Lecornu announced on 20 September a 2027 draft budget with €54 billion in consolidation, targeting a deficit of 5% against a projected 6.5%. The plan leaves pension and tax-break decisions to parliament, where RN holds pivotal votes.
AfD launches Saxony-Anhalt coalition contacts; BSW alone agrees to meet
AfD Saxony-Anhalt lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund announced on 19 September that the party is in coalition contacts and aims to form a state government by end of 2026. BSW is the only party willing to meet, reversing its 15 September refusal, while CDU, Greens, and Left all refuse cooperation.
AfD leaders prepare Russian gas talks with Putin envoy Dmitriev for early 2027
Reuters reported on 18 September that AfD leaders Weidel and Chrupalla are preparing talks with Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev for early 2027 on restarting Russian gas flows to Germany, challenging Berlin's post-invasion energy stance outside official government channels.
FPÖ-led Patriots for Europe convene Strasbourg meeting with far-right allies and Israel's Saar
The FPÖ-led Patriots for Europe group convened a meeting at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on 18 September, bringing together Vox, Lega, Orbán-linked forces, and Le Pen. Israel's interior minister Saar attended, deepening the bloc's transnational cooperation on migration and security.
Macron states France targeted by Russian hybrid attacks, government preparing response
President Emmanuel Macron said on 18 September that France has been targeted by Russian hybrid attacks and that the government is preparing a response, elevating electoral-security concerns ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
EP resolution labels Ceuta crossings "hybrid warfare"; Article 7 against Hungary flagged for reassessment
The European Parliament adopted a resolution on 18 September declaring mass irregular crossings into Ceuta an act of "hybrid warfare" against an EU member state. EU institutions indicated preparations to reconsider Article 7 proceedings against Hungary pending a reform-assessment mission.
AUR launches bid to suspend Romanian President Dan
AUR launched a parliamentary bid to suspend President Nicușor Dan on 18 September, seeking to trigger snap elections under Article 89. The move adds constitutional pressure to a deadlock where PM-designate Mureșan lacks a confirmed majority.
Zemmour formally enters 2027 French presidential race
Far-right pundit Éric Zemmour formally entered the 2027 French presidential race on 18 September, creating a rival candidacy to Marine Le Pen within the far-right ecosystem. Le Pen remains the first-round front-runner at 33–36% in polling.
Romania's Dan nominates Mureșan as PM amid far-right-boosted deadlock
Romanian President Nicușor Dan nominated Liberal MEP Siegfried Mureșan as prime minister on 17 September, seeking to end a crisis triggered when PSD and AUR jointly toppled the previous government. No majority backs Mureșan: PSD demands its own candidate, while AUR campaigns for snap elections polls suggest would benefit it.
Sweden's centre-left opposition secures narrow lead in Riksdag projections
Public broadcaster SVT projects Magdalena Andersson's centre-left bloc will win 175 of 349 parliamentary seats, securing a narrow one-seat lead as election authorities tally late ballots ahead of government formation talks.
Le Pen offers RN support for 2027 budget in exchange for concessions
Marine Le Pen formally offered on 16 September to support the 2027 budget in exchange for policy concessions, positioning RN as a fiscal power broker while maintaining her first-round presidential poll lead despite an upheld graft conviction.
Eight CDU state premiers back Chancellor Merz but prepare for reassessment
All eight CDU state premiers issued a joint statement backing Chancellor Merz on 16 September, but indicated they would reassess his future after the upcoming regional election results, highlighting internal party pressure.
Nawrocki blocks oath of Constitutional Tribunal judge-elect Berek
Polish President Karol Nawrocki withheld the oath of office from Constitutional Tribunal judge-elect Maciej Berek, demanding documentation of ten years of active legal practice before swearing him in. The move opens a new flashpoint over judicial appointments between the presidency and the governing coalition.
Von der Leyen frames AfD surge as EU-wide ultranationalist challenge
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urged the EU to "fight back against ultranationalists" on 16 September, explicitly linking AfD's Saxony-Anhalt bid to nationalist mobilisation across the Union. She positioned the Commission as defender of the "European idea" against anti-European actors.
Polish prosecutors charge former deputy justice minister Michał Woś
Poland's National Prosecutor's Office charged PiS lawmaker and former deputy justice minister Michał Woś with exceeding his authority while managing the Prison Service between 2021 and 2023. Woś pleaded not guilty.
BSW definitively rules out coalition with AfD or any party in Saxony-Anhalt
BSW deputy parliamentary leader Claudia Wittig stated on 15 September that BSW will not enter coalition talks or a coalition with AfD or any other party, closing the last formal path to a governing partner for AfD in Saxony-Anhalt.
Hungary submits bill to repeal Orban-era anti-LGBTQ+ provisions
Hungary's government submitted a bill to parliament on 15 September removing provisions banning the "promotion of homosexuality" to minors, following an April EU court ruling declaring the restrictions incompatible with EU law. It is the first rollback of Orban-era illiberal legislation by the post-Orban government.
Merz convenes CDU crisis meeting after Saxony-Anhalt defeat
Chancellor Merz called a special CDU leadership meeting for 15 September to respond to the party's Saxony-Anhalt loss and prepare for state votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. The meeting addresses AfD's 29% nationwide poll lead and growing internal debate over the firewall.
Two large polls confirm Le Pen as clear 2027 front-runner
Two polls published on 14 September, a Toluna Harris survey of 2,052 voters and an Ipsos-BVA survey of over 13,000, place Le Pen at 33-36% in first-round voting intentions for France's 2027 presidential race, with Mélenchon second in the mid-teens. Second-round projections show her beating all tested contenders.
Lower Saxony municipal results: CDU first, AfD third
CDU won 27.2% in Lower Saxony municipal elections on 14 September, ahead of SPD at 24.6% and AfD third at 15.9%. The contests were treated as a test of AfD momentum after Saxony-Anhalt; AfD's third-place finish tempers but does not halt its advance.
DW nationwide poll gives AfD 29% vs 20% for CDU/CSU bloc
A DW poll published 13 September puts AfD at 29% nationwide against 20% for the CDU/CSU bloc, the party's widest national lead. The survey intensifies pressure on Chancellor Merz's cordon sanitaire ahead of state votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin.
AfD's Siegmund links arms production to remigration pushbacks ahead of BSW talks
AfD Saxony-Anhalt leader Ulrich Siegmund said on 13 September the party does not "categorically condemn" arms production because remigration pushbacks "will need means." BSW state leader Wittig rejected both rearmament and militarized pushbacks, exposing a policy clash as exploratory talks began.
Key
Swedish exit polls project left opposition victory with 183 seats in Riksdag
Exit polls from SVT and TV4 on 13 September project Magdalena Andersson's left-leaning opposition bloc securing 183 of 349 Riksdag seats. The result defeats the incumbent right bloc, which includes the Sweden Democrats, narrowing populist advance in a Nordic EU member state.
Le Pen launches 2027 campaign with national-priority housing platform
Marine Le Pen formally launched her 2027 presidential bid in Hénin-Beaumont on 13 September, centring her first policy plank on "national priority" access to social housing for French citizens. The pledge would likely collide with EU non-discrimination rules if enacted.
Söder backs Merz, rejects internal moves to replace chancellor after AfD breakthrough
CSU leader Markus Söder publicly backed Chancellor Merz on 13 September, rejecting internal moves to replace him after the CDU/CSU setback in Saxony-Anhalt. Söder framed conservative unity as essential to resist AfD's pressure and avoid further centre-right fragmentation.
Russia announces economic forum with AfD participation after Saxony-Anhalt win
Russian official Kirill Dmitriev announced on 12 September that Moscow will propose an economic forum including AfD participation, following the party's 43.8% result in Saxony-Anhalt. The move marks open Russian cultivation of an AfD-led state government as a political and economic channel.
150,000 protest across German cities against AfD state government bid
Around 150,000 people demonstrated in multiple German cities on 12 September against AfD's attempt to form a state government in Saxony-Anhalt, in what agencies termed the largest civil-society mobilisation against the far right in post-war Germany.
CDU concedes government mandate to AfD in Saxony-Anhalt
Regional CDU leader Sven Schulze announced on 12 September that CDU will move into opposition, conceding that the "government mandate" lies with AfD rather than seeking to assemble an anti-AfD majority. The concession removes a potential institutional barrier to AfD forming Germany's first far-right-led state government since 1945.
Poland's BBN demands clarification on reported police plans at Constitutional Tribunal
National Security Bureau head Bartosz Grodecki asked Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński on 11 September to clarify reports of potential police action at the Constitutional Tribunal in Warsaw. The request adds tension to Poland's unresolved judicial standoff.
AfD files criminal complaint against Chancellor Merz over Bundestag remarks
AfD's parliamentary group filed a criminal defamation complaint on 11 September against Chancellor Merz for calling the party's remigration agenda "ethnic cleansing by skin colour and origin" in the Bundestag. AfD MP Stephan Brandner called the remarks "criminally relevant."
UDMR blocks independent premier backed by sovereigntist defectors in Romania
UDMR leader Kelemen Hunor told President Nicușor Dan on 10 September he will not endorse an independent prime minister installed with sovereigntist defectors' votes, backing instead a PSD-led cabinet. Without UDMR's support, no parliamentary majority exists for any executive.
SOS România proposes coalition talks with AUR, floats suspending president
SOS România leader Diana Șoșoacă proposed on 10 September coalition negotiations with AUR, including scenarios for a nationalist-souverainist government, suspension of the president, or early elections. The overture shows radical parties leveraging Romania's institutional deadlock to push a sovereigntist realignment.
Romanian poll places AUR at 39.7%, far ahead of mainstream parties
An INSCOP Research barometer conducted 1–7 September and reported on 10 September places AUR at 39.7% in Romanian parliamentary voting intentions, against roughly 19% for PSD and below 20% for PNL. The former governing parties combined do not reach AUR's level.
Bundesbank President Nagel warns publicly about AfD's EU-exit platform
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned on 10 September that AfD's Saxony-Anhalt platform includes leaving the EU, curbing migration, and restoring ties with Moscow. The statement from Germany's central bank chief adds institutional weight to firewall concerns.
Berlin postpones scheduled Trump call after his AfD praise
Germany postponed a scheduled call between Chancellor Merz and U.S. President Trump after Trump publicly congratulated AfD on its Saxony-Anhalt victory, introducing a transatlantic friction point over the AfD question.
BSW accepts exploratory talks with AfD in Saxony-Anhalt
BSW's state board voted unanimously on 9 September to accept AfD's invitation to exploratory talks on government formation, focusing on energy, education, and peace policy, while ruling out a formal coalition. BSW's five deputies are the only faction willing to engage, testing Germany's cross-party firewall.
Trump congratulates AfD on Saxony-Anhalt victory
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly congratulated AfD on 9 September for its Saxony-Anhalt victory, calling it a "great night." The endorsement from a sitting U.S. president adds external weight to AfD's claim to democratic legitimacy.
Greens and SPD reject AfD coalition invitation in Saxony-Anhalt
Greens and SPD in Saxony-Anhalt refused on 9 September to enter exploratory talks with AfD, with Greens calling engagement with a "right-wing extremist" party "absurd." The refusals entrench the cordon sanitaire despite AfD's position as the largest party.
Ciotti seals alliance with RN for 2027 French presidential race
Éric Ciotti's conservative formation sealed an alliance with Rassemblement National for the 2027 French presidential race, with constituency-sharing for subsequent legislative elections already underway, consolidating Le Pen's bloc on the right.