US petrol prices set for record high on eve of midterm vote under Trump

A record ahead of the vote

An FT analysis of federal data shows the average price of a gallon of petrol during Trump's second term will top $3.46 on 2 November, passing the previous average high set under Joe Biden. The AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.17 on Sunday, 1 November, still below the daily peak of $5.02 reached under Biden after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Costs have climbed since Trump joined Israel in attacking Iran in February, and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with talks over its transit deadlocked. The Independent reports that a gallon of regular gasoline cost $2.98 before the war. The record comes one day before Tuesday, 3 November, when Americans vote in midterm elections.

Diesel and inflation

Diesel has risen more than 70% during Trump's second term and now stands at $6.30 a gallon, below the record $6.53 set in September. The Independent gave the February price as $3.76, the month the war began. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose at an annual rate of 3.6% in September, against 2.6% before Trump took office. A recent FT survey found 56% of voters said they were financially worse off under Trump. Jason Bordoff, head of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, tied the issue directly to the vote:

“High energy prices are a key driver of the affordability concerns that are going to be top of mind for people at the polls,”

2026-023.76

2026-096.53

2026-11-016.3

2026-02

3.76 $ per gallon

2026-09

6.53 $ per gallon

2026-11-01

6.3 $ per gallon

Data from the article text

Trump's response on prices and Iran

At a rally in Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday, 1 November, Trump called higher fuel costs a small price to pay for security in the Middle East and said the situation would end soon. Last month he wrote that diesel prices would fall in record numbers without explaining how, and later in October he announced he would lift sanctions on Russia to let the country export diesel. On 19 October he announced a harvest fuel relief programme that he said would provide $8bn in support for farmers. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that Trump had not yet decided on resuming large-scale attacks on Iran. Axios and The New York Times have reported that Washington and Tel Aviv are preparing a possible new offensive, including strikes on Iranian leaders and on energy and nuclear infrastructure, to take place after the election. At the rally Trump also said the United States would at some point have to strike Tehran hard.

Oil company profits

The New York Times estimated that 51 large US oil and gas companies earned more than $130bn in profits from April through September, against less than $47bn in the same months of 2025, before the war pushed up prices. Brown University's Climate Solutions Lab estimates Americans have spent an extra $150bn on petrol and diesel since the war began on 28 February, more than $1,150 per household. ExxonMobil and Chevron reported profits of between $10bn and $15bn on Friday, 30 October, and the Times found the gains generally stayed below 2022 levels. Naser al-Tamimi, a fellow at the Institute for International Political Studies in Milan, explained the split:

“Crude producers gain from higher oil prices, while refiners capture exceptional margins as diesel and other fuel supplies tighten.”

Democratic Representative Jim McGovern responded on X that consumers were paying a fortune, not making one.