Oil falls as Trump calls new Iran strikes highly unlikely while talks progress

Trump signals restraint as talks continue

Oil prices fell on Monday, 9 November, after Donald Trump told CNN in a phone interview on Sunday, 8 November, that a fresh order for strikes on Iran was highly unlikely while negotiations to end the conflict kept moving forward. He said the outcome depended on whether Iran signed a very solid agreement, and he described Iran as badly weakened, adding that further attacks were no longer necessary. Earlier he had hinted at renewed attacks after the US midterm elections in the week of 2 November, but no sign of a large-scale US military operation has appeared. Tehran has warned it would hit American and Israeli targets in return.

Markets also reacted to an unconfirmed report that Iran had made concessions on its demands over the Strait of Hormuz, although no agreement has been signed yet. Both countries reported that shipping had been hit in or near the strait. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks had made little progress and called Iran's demands unacceptable and unrealistic.

Prices and the weekly slump

Early reports on Monday put Brent between $96.17 and $98.11 a barrel, while Bloomberg later reported it trading near $95 after a fall of more than 3%. US crude WTI was quoted between $89.46 and $91.10 in the same reports. The benchmark had already shed 16% in the week of 2 November according to a Reuters analysis, while London Stock Exchange Group data cited by Deutsche Welle gave a 17% drop and described it as the largest in absolute terms in records going back to 1988. Prices had peaked at the end of October before this decline.

Supply glut and German pump prices

A JPMorgan report from Friday, 6 November, estimated that global supply exceeded consumption by more than 1 million barrels per day. The bank puts the September oversupply at 1.1 million barrels a day, rising to 1.4 million in October, as Middle Eastern flows recover, output rises elsewhere and demand stays weak.

2026-091.1

2026-101.4

2026-09

1.1 million barrels per day

2026-10

1.4 million barrels per day

Data from the article text

In Germany the drop reached the forecourts. ARD data show Super averaging 2.00 euros a litre at 8am on Monday, nine cents less than the previous Monday, while E10 stood at 1.94 euros, nine cents cheaper than a week earlier, and diesel at 2.20 euros, four cents lower on average. The SWR analysis covered about 15,000 German filling stations.

Super2

E101.94

Diesel2.2

Super

2 EUR per litre

E10

1.94 EUR per litre

Diesel

2.2 EUR per litre

Data from the article text

Doubts about durability and Gulf attacks

Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, described Trump's remarks as a softer tone, though investors are still testing whether it lasts. Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm, offered a cautious read:

“The oil market appears to be pricing in a relatively optimistic scenario of de-escalation, even though a comprehensive agreement between Washington and Tehran has yet to materialise.”

She added that without a diplomatic breakthrough and steadier shipping through the strait, crude would keep a geopolitical risk premium, with near-term support for Brent at $93 a barrel. The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for a strike on the Riyadh offices of Saudi Aramco on Sunday, 8 November, which shattered windows and caused no reported casualties. RTBF added that the war between Russia and Ukraine remains an important factor for the oil market. Sachdeva also warned that renewed military escalation cannot be ruled out.