RKI revises German heat death toll to 11,900 as Europe toll tops 25,000

RKI sharply revises heat death toll

Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on Thursday published revised estimates showing approximately 11,900 heat-related deaths between April and late July 2026, well above its earlier figures. The upward correction centers on the week of June 22 to 28, when temperatures across much of Germany hovered around 40°C. The RKI now attributes 9,600 deaths to that single week, up from the 5,120 it had estimated in its July 9 report for all of 2026 up to that point. The institute described the 11,900 figure as a conservative estimate, noting the actual number could be higher.

The revised count already exceeds the previous annual record of approximately 9,000 heat-related deaths recorded in 2018, making 2026 the deadliest year for heat since the RKI began tracking in 2016. The figures are model-based rather than drawn from death certificates: the RKI compares actual mortality during hot weeks with statistically expected deaths in the absence of heat, drawing on mortality data from the Federal Statistical Office (published with a five-week delay) and temperature readings from 52 German Weather Service (DWD) stations. Cases where heat worsened existing cardiovascular or respiratory conditions without appearing on the death certificate are included in the model.

Europe-wide toll and temperature records

Bloomberg, compiling the latest available data, reports that extreme heat has killed more than 25,000 people across Europe this year, with Germany recording the highest toll of any single country. June 2026 was the second-warmest June since records began, according to the DWD, surpassed only by 2019. On June 27 alone, 46 weather stations across Germany recorded temperatures above 40°C, and the night of June 27 to 28 was the warmest since measurements began. The national weekly average temperature for June 22 to 28 reached 26.4°C, well above the 20°C threshold at which heat-related mortality typically begins to rise, the RKI said. A water temperature of 33°C was measured off Mallorca, the highest ever recorded in Spanish waters.

Elderly bear the heaviest burden

The age breakdown shows the vulnerability of older populations. Approximately 6,000 deaths occurred among people aged 85 and older, around 3,000 among those aged 75 to 84, roughly 1,800 in the 65 to 74 group, and about 1,100 among those under 65. Christian M. Schulz, head of the German Climate Change and Health Alliance and an emergency medicine specialist, warned that "tropical nights" where temperatures do not drop below 20°C prevent the body from recovering, compounding cardiovascular strain as blood shifts to the skin surface, reducing flow to internal organs and forcing the heart to work harder.

Regional impact across German states

At the state level, the RKI estimates approximately 480 heat deaths in Lower Saxony, 410 in Saxony, 70 in Schleswig-Holstein, and 50 each in Hamburg and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The Saxony figure alone exceeds the full-year totals for nine of the past ten years in that state, with only 2018 higher at an estimated 560.

Protest at the Chancellery

Several hundred demonstrators gathered outside the Chancellery in Berlin, organized by a coalition of 36 organizations including Fridays for Future, to demand a heat summit and stronger climate protection measures. Luisa Neubauer accused Chancellor Friedrich Merz of being politically "on mute" during what she called a "silent catastrophe," arguing that any other disaster of this scale would have triggered an immediate government response.