Nawrocki edges past Kaczyński as right-wing leader in first poll after PiS split, but 32% say no one leads

President Karol Nawrocki has overtaken Jarosław Kaczyński as the perceived leader of Poland's right wing, according to a United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska conducted on 24–25 July among 1,000 adults. Nawrocki was chosen by 20.4% of respondents, while Kaczyński, the longtime chairman of Law and Justice (PiS), received 19.8%. The 0.6 percentage-point gap falls within the survey's margin of error, leaving the two effectively tied. The poll is the first major test of right-wing allegiances since a faction of around 40 PiS MPs led by former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki broke away to form the Rozwój Plus (Development Plus) parliamentary club in late July.

Nawrocki and Kaczyński neck and neck

The near-identical scores mark a shift from a June Pollster survey for Super Express, in which Kaczyński led with 20% to Nawrocki's 18%. In the new poll, Nawrocki's rise is driven largely by right-wing voters: among supporters of PiS and the far-right Confederation (Konfederacja), 31% name him as leader, compared with 27% for Kaczyński. Among Confederation voters alone, Nawrocki's lead widens to 37%, while Kaczyński drops to 8%. The president, who will mark his first year in office in early August, appears to be consolidating a cross-party appeal on the right that Kaczyński has struggled to maintain after the split.

Morawiecki's new formation struggles for traction

Mateusz Morawiecki, who served as prime minister from 2017 to 2023 and now heads Rozwój Plus, was named by 9.1% of all respondents. His support is weakest among the very electorate he hopes to capture: only 3% of right-wing voters see him as the camp's leader. Among ruling-coalition voters, 9% pick Morawiecki, and among "other" voters his share rises to 19%. The numbers suggest that while Morawiecki retains some name recognition, his new club has yet to convince core conservative voters that he, rather than Nawrocki or Kaczyński, is the right's standard-bearer.

Other figures and the "no leader" plurality

Further down the list, Confederation co-leader Sławomir Mentzen garnered 4.5%, PiS prime ministerial candidate Przemysław Czarnek 2.6%, and Confederation's other co-leader Krzysztof Bosak 1.7%. The single largest response, however, was that the Polish right currently has no leader: 32.1% chose that option, down sharply from 42% in the June Pollster survey. An additional 9.8% said they did not know or found it hard to say. Among ruling-coalition voters, 55% believe the right lacks a leader, while only 14% of right-wing voters share that view.

A right in flux

The poll captures a conservative landscape reshaped by the PiS rupture. The departure of Morawiecki and his allies has fragmented the party that dominated Polish politics for eight years, creating space for Nawrocki to position himself as a unifying figure above party lines. Kaczyński, now 77, remains the formal head of a diminished PiS, but the survey suggests his authority is no longer undisputed. With parliamentary elections not due until 2027, the leadership question on the right is likely to remain fluid, and the "no leader" plurality indicates that a large segment of the public is still waiting for the dust to settle.