Poll shows Mélenchon contending for 2027 French runoff as Le Pen dominates

Polling shifts in first-round projections

A new survey conducted by Harris Interactive-Toluna for French broadcasters M6 and RTL positions Jean-Luc Mélenchon to reach the second round in three out of five tested configurations for the 2027 French presidential election. The La France Insoumise leader currently registers between 16% and 17% of voter intentions across the different models. These figures reflect an increase from April, when the same polling institute measured Mélenchon's support at 12%. Marine Le Pen maintains a substantial lead across all first-round hypotheses, drawing between 35% and 38% of voting intentions. In the baseline scenario with a wide field of contenders, Mélenchon places second with 16% of the vote. In that configuration, former prime minister Édouard Philippe receives 14%, Raphaël Glucksmann captures 10%, former prime minister Gabriel Attal takes 8%, and Bruno Retailleau records 6%.

Testing candidate combinations on the center and left

The poll examined how candidate withdrawals and substitutions in the political center and moderate left would reshape first-round outcomes. In a configuration where Renaissance candidate Gabriel Attal steps aside, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Édouard Philippe finish in a tie at 17% each. In the reverse situation, where the mayor of Le Havre does not run, Attal secures between 14% and 15% of the vote, leaving Mélenchon in second place with 17%. Only a single scenario among the five tested places Philippe ahead of the La France Insoumise leader. That outcome requires Attal to withdraw and former president François Hollande to run for social democracy in place of Raphaël Glucksmann. Under those specific conditions, Philippe reaches the second round with 19%, Mélenchon takes 17%, and Hollande finishes with 8%.

Second-round matchups favor Marine Le Pen

While the survey shows intense competition for the second qualification spot, Marine Le Pen wins every tested head-to-head runoff by wide margins. If faced with Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the second round, the National Rally leader prevails with 68% of the vote against 32% for Mélenchon. In a duel against Gabriel Attal, Le Pen captures 57% of voter intentions compared to 43% for the former prime minister. When matched against Édouard Philippe, who had previously been viewed as the contender best positioned to defeat her, Le Pen wins with 55% against Philippe's 45%. These second-round figures indicate that the National Rally candidate holds a clear advantage across the electorate regardless of which opponent advances from the first round.

Survey parameters and political gathering

The Harris Interactive-Toluna study was administered online from 18 to 19 August among a representative sample of 1,764 French residents aged 18 and older. The findings were released on Monday, 24 August, shortly after Mélenchon concluded his annual political rentrée address before several thousand party militants in Châteauneuf-sur-Isère, located in the Drôme department. The four-time presidential contender used the gathering to mobilize his base as the broader political field assesses its electoral balance. The poll results document the current standing of party leaders across the right, center, and left ahead of the 2027 campaign cycle.