Le Pen leads French presidential poll at 34-36%, Mélenchon second at 18-19%

The poll and its method

A poll by Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, published on Monday, 9 November, measures voting intentions ahead of the presidential election due in April and May 2027. Fieldwork ran online from 3 to 5 November among 2,101 registered voters. AFP and Reuters carried the findings, which are reported as ranges across several scenarios rather than single figures. The pollster describes the results as a snapshot of current opinion, not a prediction of the 2027 result. Compared with the October survey, Le Pen and Mélenchon each gained one or two points in most of the scenarios tested.

First round: Le Pen ahead, Philippe slipping

Marine Le Pen, candidate of the Rassemblement National, is put at 34-36% in the first round, depending on the scenario. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, is second at 18-19% and reaches the runoff in all five scenarios analysed. Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and mayor of Le Havre, is credited with 11-14%, five to seven points behind Mélenchon. The poll shows Philippe, once level with Mélenchon in the race for a runoff place, now well behind him. Raphaël Glucksmann, the Social Democrat, stands at 11-13%, which the poll describes as flat or slightly lower. In October, a similar poll had credited Le Pen with 35-37%.

The centre and the right

David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes, reaches 9% in one scenario, level with Gabriel Attal and three points behind Édouard Philippe. Bruno Retailleau, leader of Les Républicains, would receive 5-8% if his party ran him separately. He could reach 10% as the single candidate of the right and centre. Attal would also obtain 10% if he were the sole candidate of that camp.

Second-round matchups

In direct second-round tests, Le Pen is projected to beat Mélenchon 68% to 32%, which the poll describes as an easy win. Against Glucksmann the estimate is 60% to 40%, and against Philippe it is 58% to 42%. Le Pen reached the runoff in 2017 and 2022 and lost both times to Emmanuel Macron. Mélenchon has run three times, in 2012, 2017 and 2022, without reaching the second round. Le Pen also ran in all three of those elections.

Le Pen vs Jean-Luc Mélenchon68%

Le Pen vs Raphaël Glucksmann60%

Le Pen vs Édouard Philippe58%

Le Pen vs Jean-Luc Mélenchon

68 %

Le Pen vs Raphaël Glucksmann

60 %

Le Pen vs Édouard Philippe

58 %

Data from the article text

Programme and political context

Mélenchon's official programme, published on Friday, 6 November, calls for an immediate withdrawal from NATO's integrated command, followed by a phased exit from the alliance itself. It rejects the contribution of 5% of GDP that the United States has asked for defence spending. The 222-page document says a Mélenchon-led France would keep helping EU members under the EU treaties. Earlier, the French government accused Mélenchon of acting as a spokesman for the Kremlin after he said the population of Donbas should be consulted on its future. According to HotNews, his standing in the poll has not suffered from attacks by the government and the right. Emmanuel Macron, whose second and final term ends in 2027, is unpopular, and the centre has lost support amid economic difficulties and complaints about the cost of living.