Makerfield by-election: Burnham battles Reform as right-wing vote split could decide next UK prime minister
Andy Burnham hopes to win a parliamentary seat in today's Makerfield by-election and immediately challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership, but a splintered right-wing vote could tip the race.
Voters in the former mining constituency of Makerfield go to the polls on Thursday in a by-election that could quickly lead to a new British prime minister.
The stakes
Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester's Labour mayor and frontrunner for the seat, has made clear he will use a victory to mount an internal challenge to party leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. If he returns to Westminster, he could face Starmer in a leadership contest as early as the autumn party conference. Starmer's government has been weakened by disastrous local elections and the recent resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey. A Burnham win in Makerfield, a longtime Labour stronghold, would intensify pressure on Starmer to step aside.
The candidates
Burnham faces Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor who finished second in 2024. Kenyon has stressed his working-class roots but has been dogged by criticism over past social media posts on Brexit, abortion and Ukraine. Also on the ballot: Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd, the Green Party and the Conservatives, the latter polling at barely three per cent.
I'm not a career politician – people will feel listened to.
Right-wing splinter
Reform's best hope of taking the seat has been undercut by Rupert Lowe's hardline Restore Britain party. Predicted to win about seven per cent of the vote, Restore is pulling away enough right-leaning voters that Labour may benefit.
If Restore weren't around Reform would walk it.
A shopkeeper in Ashton-in-Makerfield, Steve Broadhurst, sums up the frustration: "What's the point of this? The aim here should be to stop Burnham and Labour."
Polling picture
Constituency polls give Burnham a lead of three to 12 percentage points over Kenyon, leaving the outcome uncertain. Labour figures remain upbeat, with MP Rachael Maskell saying Burnham is "bringing people together" and urging a leadership challenge. She told reporters she was "optimistic" he could be prime minister by September.
In the last minutes of reaching a decision [voters] are turning to Andy because he's bringing people together.
Starmer's response
The prime minister has warned a leadership contest would be "bad" for the country and signalled he would offer Burnham a cabinet post if he wins. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner are also expected to enter any leadership race. If Reform's Kenyon pulls off an upset, internal Labour pressure could trigger a challenge from sitting MPs instead.
What happens next
Polls close at 10pm local time, with a result expected early Friday. Even a narrow Burnham victory would be read as a mandate against Starmer's direction. A Reform win would mark a seismic shift in British politics.
