Likud leads Israeli exit polls as Netanyahu ties his fate to Trump

Exit polls put Likud first

Exit polls published on 27 October show Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud as the largest party in the Knesset, a result that Il Messaggero and Il Giornale say almost nobody had predicted on the eve of the vote. The Likud is still locked in a close contest with the opposition bloc, so the outcome is not settled. Both Italian outlets frame the result as a late comeback for the prime minister. Exit polls are preliminary figures and do not replace the final count.

A final campaign tied to Trump

Netanyahu, 77, is described as the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history, and he has dominated the country's politics for roughly 30 years. In his last tweet before polling opened, he tied the vote to removing the Iranian nuclear threat together with Trump and to signing peace agreements with other countries. Reports say he all but begged Israelis for two more years in power, making his political destiny depend on that of his ally, Donald Trump. Despite the accusations and the bitter campaign, the exit polls gave him a result that almost no one had expected.

Trump's intervention

In a post on Truth, Trump says the situation changed completely once he expressed his support for Netanyahu. He describes what had looked like a defeat for the prime minister as an unexpected comeback that has produced a deadlock, if not a victory for Netanyahu. Trump adds that he wants only the good of the Middle East, Israel and the United States, and he says everything followed his backing.

Legal cloud and career record

The reports point to a corruption trial, an arrest warrant issued from The Hague and the possibility of a pardon in exchange for Netanyahu leaving politics, though Il Giornale presents the pardon only as a hypothesis. Netanyahu was born in Tel Aviv in 1949 and served in the Sayeret Matkal unit, taking part in the 1972 rescue of the Sabena aircraft hijacked alongside Ehud Barak, who later became his main rival. He became UN ambassador at 35 and was first elected prime minister in 1996 at 46, making him the youngest premier at that point. He lost to Barak in 1999, returned in 2003 as finance minister under Ariel Sharon, and pushed tax cuts and privatizations that angered the ultra-Orthodox parties, now his allies.

Key milestones

Since 2009 Netanyahu has governed Israel without interruption, apart from the Bennett-Lapid government of 2021. In 2015 he addressed the US Congress against the Iran nuclear deal known as JCPOA, a speech that Il Messaggero says marked a rift with the US presidency. The timeline below shows the main stages of his career.