Le Pen and Mélenchon lead French presidential polls ahead of 2027 vote

Latest poll keeps Le Pen in front

A poll published on 9 November 2026 shows far-right leader Marine Le Pen keeping her lead in voting intentions for France's next presidential election. Toluna Harris carried out the survey from 3 to 5 November. Under the scenarios it tested, Le Pen comes first in the first round with between 34% and 36%, and the figures are given as ranges because they vary by scenario. A poll from October 2026 gave her a range of 35% to 37%, so the latest band sits slightly lower. The articles place the presidential vote in spring 2027.

Mélenchon in second place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical left party La France Insoumise, is projected at 18% to 19% and makes the runoff in all five scenarios tested. The poll shows both leaders well ahead of Raphaël Glucksmann and Édouard Philippe, whom the reports describe as losing ground. The articles give no figures for those two candidates, so their exact levels are not stated here. The gap between the top two and the rest of the field is the main feature of this survey. Mélenchon's position is the one most consistent across the scenarios.

Le Pen, low end34%

Le Pen, high end36%

Mélenchon, low end18%

Mélenchon, high end19%

Le Pen, low end

34 %

Le Pen, high end

36 %

Mélenchon, low end

18 %

Mélenchon, high end

19 %

Data from the article text

A runoff seen before

In the head-to-head second round, the poll has Le Pen beating Mélenchon easily. Mélenchon has run for the presidency three times before, in 2012, 2017 and 2022, and has never reached the runoff. Le Pen was also a candidate in those three elections. She lost the runoffs in 2017 and 2022, both to Emmanuel Macron. The reports draw on these earlier results to frame the current matchup, and they do not go into further detail on those campaigns.

Macron's final term and the centre

Emmanuel Macron is in the second and final five-year term of his presidency, which is nearing its end. The articles describe him as unpopular now. They say he leaves behind a weakened political centre and a weak economy. According to the reports, that gap has created room for hardline parties. The reports tie the poll to this backdrop, describing polarisation as intensifying across the country's political life.

What remains open

The newest Toluna Harris fieldwork ran across three days, from 3 to 5 November, and the figures reported reflect that window. The presidential vote itself has not yet taken place, and the articles place it in spring 2027. Until then, the first-round positions of Le Pen and Mélenchon rest on polling scenarios rather than on votes cast. The reports do not say how many candidates will ultimately stand. Pollsters' ranges leave room for movement in either direction before the ballot.