Ex-Russian prime minister Kasyanov says Putin will not admit Ukraine invasion error

Assessment of Kremlin strategy

Speaking on 3 October 2026 on the sidelines of a Paris conference organized by the French association Russie-Libertes, former Russian prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov stated that Vladimir Putin cannot bring himself to acknowledge his initial miscalculation in Ukraine. The 68-year-old former official, who advocated closer ties with the West while leading the Russian government between 2000 and 2004, became a prominent Kremlin critic following his dismissal. Kasyanov explained that Putin launched the 2022 invasion after accepting faulty security intelligence that portrayed Ukraine as defenseless. Now living in exile in Riga after leaving Russia in 2022, Kasyanov projected that the armed conflict will not conclude by 2027.

He believed the reports of his security services according to which Ukraine was weak.

Western divisions and energy revenues

Kasyanov identified rising global oil prices and Western political fractures as key factors sustaining the Kremlin's war effort. Higher oil revenues stemming from the military conflict between the United States and Iran have bolstered Moscow's budget, while policy disagreements between Donald Trump and European leaders regarding Kremlin strategy have reduced pressure on Russia. According to Kasyanov, Putin is convinced that Russia is winning the war of attrition and sees no reason to offer concessions. To counter escalating Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, Kasyanov called on Western partners to present a united front, apply psychological pressure on Moscow, and urgently dispatch Patriot air defense interceptors before winter.

Elite sentiment and domestic endurance

Russian authorities designated Kasyanov as a foreign agent in 2023, but the former prime minister stated that he remains in communication with members of Russia's ruling elite. He reported that fear pervades the political class, where an overwhelming majority favors an end to the fighting. However, opinions diverge sharply on how the conflict should terminate, spanning those who demand a Russian victory, those seeking Putin's defeat, and those desiring an immediate cessation regardless of terms. Domestically, Kasyanov dismissed prospects of an imminent popular uprising, explaining that Russian citizens have endured high inflation for three decades and have grown accustomed to absorbing economic hardship, food price inflation, and casualties on the front line.

Nuclear threats and Western deterrence

Addressing Moscow's statements regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons to defend the Kaliningrad exclave, Kasyanov urged Western governments not to succumb to intimidation. Speaking before a packed auditorium of exiled Russians in Paris, he described Putin as a highly calculating cynic rather than an irrational figure. Kasyanov argued that the Russian president relies on nuclear brinkmanship to frighten foreign leaders while fearing the nuclear button more than European policymakers do. Kasyanov urged European nations to recognize that Putin is vulnerable to united pressure.

The biggest mistake of the West and Europeans is that they are too afraid of Putin. He is not as strong as he seems.