Putin's isolation and fears

Czech President Petr Pavel, 64, described Russian President Vladimir Putin, 74, as quite isolated in an interview with Paul Ronzheimer for the Bild podcast. Pavel said Putin trusts few people and has an almost obsessive fear of being killed. He argued that when Putin is surrounded by only a small circle, that circle can filter the information it allows him to hear. Pavel said he believes Putin remains convinced that the operation in Ukraine is succeeding, probably partly because of reports from his military leadership. In Pavel's view, Putin is misinformed in several respects.

Doubts about reporting from the front

Pavel's assessment fits with reports from military analysts in recent months, which describe attempts inside the Russian military to conceal the true situation at the front. Senior officers are said to hide setbacks and territorial losses out of fear of consequences and to embellish front reports. The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has repeatedly described this in its assessments of the war in Ukraine. When Moscow announced territorial gains that analysts could not confirm, the ISW wrote that Putin's front reports were bordering on hallucinations. Pro-Kremlin war bloggers have also criticized the information policy in the Russian army, with the Telegram military analysis channel Älter als Edda calling for an end to lying to superiors.

Refugees and Russia's war aims

Pavel said Russia most likely aims to make life in Ukraine unbearable, possibly to trigger a new wave of refugees toward European countries. In his view, the purpose would be to show that Ukraine cannot win and that Russia can impose its will by making life impossible for people there. He said he has no doubt that Russia would conquer all of Ukraine if it had the chance. Pavel described the situation at the front as far from a Russian victory and said Russia loses tens of thousands of soldiers every month. He put the September figure at around 50,000 soldiers killed and wounded in that single month, a rate he said far exceeds Russia's ability to replace losses through recruitment.

NATO plans and a European negotiator

Pavel rejected Russian propaganda claiming that NATO plans to attack Russia. Despite holding the alliance's highest-level security clearance, he said, he had never seen a plan aimed at an offensive on Russian territory, and all NATO plans are defensive. Die Welt reported that Putin has said he is ready for renewed talks with the United States and Ukraine. Pavel warned against direct US-Russia talks that exclude Europe, arguing that European security cannot be negotiated without Europeans. He said Europe first needs an internal debate on a broader common position, and then should name a person or group with a clear mandate, not necessarily representatives of the EU or NATO. He warned that Europe risks becoming irrelevant unless it changes how slowly it reaches decisions.

Incentives for Moscow

Pavel said a process that leads to an end to the conflict in Ukraine would remove any reason for further hybrid attacks. He described a possible sweetener as the resumption of economic relations, cooperation and trade, which he said would be very tempting for Russia. He made cooperation conditional on a ceasefire in Ukraine. According to Die Welt, easing sanctions would only be conceivable if Russia became a respected partner again. Pavel's remarks carry particular weight because he previously served as chief of the Czech general staff and, from 2015 to 2018, chaired NATO's Military Committee.