Israel votes on 27 October in tight race between Netanyahu and Eisenkot

A close race with Netanyahu's future at stake

Israel elects a new Knesset on Tuesday, 27 October, the first national vote since the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023. About 7.3 million eligible voters will choose the 120 seats of the parliament. Surveys in the run-up show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is 76, practically level with his challenger Gadi Eisenkot. If the opposition wins, Netanyahu would lose the office of a leader who has governed Israel for longer than any other prime minister. Eisenkot, 66, was chief of staff of the army from 2015 to 2019, entered politics only recently and leads the Jaschar party.

Two blocs with different answers on security

Netanyahu's coalition combines his conservative Likud with the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. It also includes the more militant forces of the settler movement, among them Otzma Yehudit, led by Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, and Zionut ha-Datit, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The opposition is an informal alliance that stretches from the religious conservative Naftali Bennett and the secular Avigdor Lieberman to the left, represented by Yair Lapid and Yair Golan. Eisenkot's Jaschar party sits on the centre-right, puts security and the military's operational capacity first, and rejects an independent Palestinian state.

Coalition arithmetic could take months

Surveys show no clear majority for either candidate, so a government will likely require complicated talks with several small parties. Forming a government could take weeks or even months after the vote. A minority government or a coalition across the two blocs is also possible. Parties need at least 3.25% of the valid votes to enter the Knesset. Israel votes as a single constituency, and most Israelis cannot vote by post and must cast their ballot in person.

Security, Iran and Gaza dominate the campaign

The war in Gaza that followed the 7 October 2023 attack remains central, and Israel's military conduct there faces international criticism. Settler violence and settlement building in the occupied West Bank are also contested issues. Israel's government has long warned that Iran's leadership could obtain a nuclear weapon, a charge Tehran denies wanting. Netanyahu drew headlines with a drastic illustration showing a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, and Eisenkot accused him of stoking fear and said Netanyahu had failed to reach his goals in the last Iran war. The overhaul of the judiciary and the dispute over military service for ultra-Orthodox men have deeply divided Israeli society, and tens of thousands marched against Netanyahu's coalition in the days before the vote.

Counting begins after polls close

Polling stations open at 7:00 local time and close at 22:00, which the NZZ equates to 21:00 Central European Time. First exit polls follow the close of voting. The first counted results are expected during the night to Wednesday, 28 October.

The final official result is due by 4 November at the latest. Israel last held a national election in November 2022, and the outgoing government completed its full term for the first time since 1988.